19% and 90%: What the numbers tell us about Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball (so far)

After seven games, including four against quality opponents, the Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team won 5-2. They now enter perhaps their toughest stretch of the season, playing against No. 2 Marquette at home on Saturday, in East Lansing to take on Michigan State on Tuesday, and at No. 3 Arizona on Saturday, Dec. 9.

Here are some numbers that tell us who this team was, and perhaps who it will become.

19%

After injuring his back in the Badgers’ opener against Arkansas State, former freshman Connor Essegian was out of sync at the start of the season. He shoots a horrific 19% from 3-point range After achieving 36% last year On his way to setting a University of Wisconsin freshman record for most triples hit in a season. He went 2-of-6 from three, played some good defense and had a season-high 14 minutes in a win earlier this week against Western Illinois. Maybe he’ll find his rhythm.

23%

AJ Storr leads the team in scoring with over 13 points per game. But after burning the nets last year from the depths – He shot 40% from three – Storr is shooting a lousy 23% from behind the arc this year. Sometimes the 6’7″ small forward, who clearly got the green light from the coaching staff to score, would try to do too much offense, resulting in forced shots. Expect his three-point shooting to dip favorably toward the middle, where more shots should start to fall. Hopefully we can start on Saturday when Marquette comes to town.

90%

But Storr’s free throw percentage was a near-perfect 90% on 19-21 shooting to lead the team. Keep attacking the bucket, AJ.

30%

That’s the 3-point percentage for both starting guards Chucky Hepburn and Max Klesmet. The pair received 40% and 38% respectively from three last year. We expect these two to regress favorably to the mean as well. Hepburn was sick during the Badgers’ two-game series at Florida last week, so expect him to really recover as his health improves.

52% —> 42% —> 56%

Tyler Wahl can’t (or doesn’t want to) shoot a jump shot, but that doesn’t stop the extremely athletic 6’9″ forward from scoring.

After shooting about 52% from the floor in his junior season, his shooting percentage dipped to 42% last year in his senior season after an ankle injury cost him a few games and derailed the Badgers’ promising season. In a year in which UW lost almost every game by a bucket or two, that significant drop in Wahl’s shooting percentage was the difference between fourth place in the league versus the position they ended up in: 12th.

In his fifth year, Wahl converted 56% of his shots from the floor, almost all of which were around the rim. He reflects the hoop well, and uses the rim to protect his shot from taller defenders.

Wahl converting more than half of his shots bodes well for the Badgers’ chances this year.

Naturally, he shoots similar 59% from the free throw linewhich is too bad, but I think we’ll all have to live with that.

Wahl tried to add 3-point shooting to his game last season, shooting 10-34 from the arc at a below-average clip of 29%. He appears to have abandoned that plan. The senior has only made two three-point shots on the season – which is probably a good thing – he missed both.

74 ppg vs. 65 ppg

The Badgers are scoring about 74 points per game this year, up from 65 last year. That’s not surprising after UW added Storr and a group of freshmen who were ready to contribute right away.

64 pages per gallon vs. 64 pages per gallon

Wisconsin is allowing about 64 points per game, which is almost identical to what they gave up last year. This is a good sign in a year in which their scores increased. And the defense has clearly improved after some turbulent performances earlier this season, including giving up 80 points to a good Tennessee team in Madison.

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