Due to energy supply problems, indebtedness in the real estate sector (where the Evergrande bankruptcy could only be the first swallow), floods, banks have reversed growth expectations for China in turn. CNBC from assembly.
| Banks expect China to grow this year | |||
| bank | date | New predictions | old expectations |
| ANZ | August. | 8.30% | 8.80% |
| Morgan Stanley | August. | 7.90% | 8,20% |
| American bank | September. | 8% | 8.30% |
| City | September. | 8,20% | 8,70% |
| German Bank | September. | 8.40% | 8,90% |
| Goldman Sachs | September. | 7.80% | 8,20% |
| HSBC | September. | 8.30% | 8.50% |
| Nomura | September. | 7.70% | 8,20% |
| Standard Chartered | October | 8,20% | 8.80% |
| JP Morgan | October | 8.30% | 8,70% |
| Source: CNBC Group, Portfolio | |||
In any case, the numbers are not at all tragic, as Standard Chartered cut Chinese growth by 0.6 percentage points more than others, but the Bank of England still expects growth of 8.2%. Most pessimistic is Japan’s Nomura, who said growth could reach 7.7%, but Credit Suisse, DBS and UBS did not revise their forecasts at all.
Third-quarter GDP data will arrive on Monday, and we can conclude from the sub-data so far that the economy slowed in the third quarter, for example, household consumption did not show a favorable picture. On the other hand, the export sector has performed well, and even with the slowdown, we can expect the Chinese economy to grow above the global average (IMF forecasts 5.9% by 2021).
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