Economist Tamas Millar said that the Orban government is consciously trying to create a situation that, if they lose the parliamentary elections next spring, the opposition in power will not be able to implement its own economic policy – this includes the issue of debt and inflation. The National Assembly’s Opposition Committee, Vice-President of the Economic Conference of the Republican Institute.
I agree with those who say
There is a lot of room for fiscal maneuver, as budgetary priorities are set by the current Hungarian government.
Millar added, “I think it’s realistic to estimate that the room for maneuver is around HUF 1,500 billion – so a lot of money could be set differently in 2022.”
To estimate room for budget maneuverability, you will need to know exactly what the next government wants. I think the entire budget has to change radically: In order to do that, I’m suggesting a change of 10-12 percent of GDP or more, said Zoltan Bogaca, associate professor at the University of Western Hungary.
The economist put it this way:
The point is not in the size of the budget deficit, but what we want to achieve.
So we have to know first what we want to do, we need to find the funding for that, and the shortfall is secondary in that regard.
Bogata stressed that it must be clarified that deficits must be created during the crisis, and the need to increase public debt in order to manage it advantageously.
The area passed in front of us
The overall performance of the Hungarian economy improved in 2010, largely due to the favorable international environment and EU remittances. However, our performance is poor compared to Central and Eastern European countries, said Atilla Cekan, an economist, university professor and Orban’s first economics minister, at the conference.
While the Hungarian economy was not catching up even before the virus crisis, the Hungarian government’s plan for adaptation and recovery is not about the real challenges. This means that the prospects for our international competitiveness are more uncertain than before, Checa concluded.
Inflation rate rose
Hungarian inflation Not yet released: The process has been going on since 2017, said university professor Julia Kiraly, former vice president of MNB. He believes that the Hungarian Central Bank is currently going through a difficult situation. And if the current high inflation is permanently based on expectations, it will automatically appear in both wage and supply prices. The bad news is that government spending ahead of next year’s elections will increase core inflation.
We have known this since 1990, and it is a kind of political product, the development of which is important to the public, said the economist, who was governor of MNB, in Hungary. In his opinion, however
Increasing political risks is “not good” for inflation, and vice versa.
Eva Baluk, CEO of Kopint-Tárki Zrt, said it was not known if government background studies had been conducted on the impact of various distribution measures, particularly in light of the declining popularity of the resulting increase in inflation. The economist fears that an old tradition will be revived and that prices will suddenly jump on the first day of 2022, as many employers will increase their costs since then and pass them in one step to the prices of their products and services.
It is a serious and important political decision to join the eurozone. In my opinion, the next government should set enter the euro The date specified. And our monetary policy is not independent today either, more specifically, if we lose a little independence left today, it will not be a loss but a benefit, said the former Vice President of the Libyan National Bank. Late productivity means there won’t be a quick catch-up to European wages, because there won’t be at that time Hungarian Euro.
The tax system is difficult
According to Tamas Millar, many fundamental changes are needed in the tax system, but there is no agreement on this yet. On the opposition side. There is consensus that the current tax burden should not be higher and can be reduced over time. The situation is complicated by the fact that the candidate for prime minister, Peter Markie G., who won the opposition primaries, has different priorities.
In the case of personal income tax (PIT), the progressive should be restored, with at least two tax rates, and minimum wages should be tax-exempt, added Millar, who said some products should be reclassified to a lower VAT rate at rates current taxes.
space and the euro
The union’s loose financial rules increase the capacity of the government. Regardless of the party colors, the next ministers will have a margin of one thousand to two thousand billion forints, that is, this large amount can be rearranged and spent on new priorities, as predicted by Julia Kiraly.
Baloch pointed out that if the government imposes economic growth – that is, the growth rate of GDP to GDP is seven or even eight percent – and kills more and more money in it, it will also increase imports, which in turn will lead to lower GDP automatically. Eve.
The EU Recovery Fund’s room for maneuver will also be significantly increased. Although the public debt and the interest burden as a percentage of GDP will certainly increase, it will, in my opinion, be manageable,” added President Kopint-Tárki, who put it this way: “This thing should grow well.”
It is a serious and important political decision to join the eurozone. In my opinion, the next government should set a planned date for the introduction of the euro. Our monetary policy is not independent today either, more specifically, if we lose a little independence left today, it will not be a loss but a benefit, said the former MNB Deputy Governor. Late productivity means that there will be no quick catch-up to European wages, because there will be no Hungarian Euro at that time.
(Cover Image: Editing / Index by Jorunde Novak)
