Fides is almost certain to face a huge loss in popularity, but disappointment does not turn into an overnight vote, and the political socialization of Hungarians causes many to look for potential loopholes rather than open protest – explains Atilla Tibor Nagyar, the new pro-government candidate for Sunday’s victories In by-elections, the number of demonstrations is relatively low.
The victory rally in Fidesz in the elections for the Provisional Local Government continued without interruption. Sunday Saljutargan They won everywhere they started except for the headquarters of the Nograd province, and the opposition lost everywhere. On a field trip The ruling party retained the mayor in Esztergom The representative seat, although by-elections had to be called in both cities because the local leader and representative sat in Parliament in place of the Fidesz politician (István Boldog and Pál Völner) who was embroiled in a corruption scandal. In addition, the six-party coalition did not field a candidate in the Episcopal city, so the only contender for the ruling party was May Hazankos, who won with 14 percent.
Sunday brought two particularly painful defeats for the opposition. Szentendre, where an opposition-supported NGO won a landslide victory in 2019, Fidesz has now won a representative seat with 65 per cent. It has been continuously led by socialists since 2006 Sajószentpéter The leftist candidate came in only fourth, behind him were three independent candidates.
no motive
Many expected that the austerity measures announced last week would indeed be reflected in the results of Sunday’s periods, but in reality these are much slower processes – political scientist Tibor Attila Nagy explains the results to Azunale.
Reminds us: Although Oszod’s 2006 speech caused great outrage, the collapse of the MSZP occurred over several years, until they finally reached the “choice of prime minister” after Ferenc Gyurcsany’s resignation, which “definitely closed the door”.
Human nature is hard for us to admit when we are wrong, and our electoral decisions are no exception.
says the analyst.
And for the masses to turn to another political camp, a particularly attractive show would be needed, and the opposition is not yet capable of this in its present condition. Divided parties, which also denigrate one another, do not radiate the kind of calm, confidence, and strength that many people who are skeptical and anxious about their future look for.
Demonstration against the Penal Code on July 14, 2022
Photo: András Kósa / Azonnali
He adds: From the results of the local government elections in the past period, it becomes clear that in many places it does not provide a convincing performance, even when he took over the administration of the settlement three years ago.
“Neither at the local nor at the national level, opposition voters get such an incentive to feel that it is worthwhile to participate in a municipal election with essentially little risk.”
– Points Tibor Attila Nagy.
At the same time, he emphasizes that, as is customary in by-elections, this time the turnout was also very low, “certainly a large part of the people of Fides remained at home.”
Not demonstrations, mostly demonstrations
The curfew, or the restriction of reduced facilities, means a heavy burden on millions of people, yet we haven’t seen even a fraction of them on the streets during the demonstrations of the past few days. According to the analyst, there are current and deeply rooted reasons for this in social psychology.
Don’t forget it’s summer, standing for hours in the scorching sun or sweltering heat isn’t very pleasant, points out the political expert. In addition, this is not such a measure as the net tax, which affected almost the entire population according to the lawnmower principle, and now only certain groups have to face the negative consequences.
He adds: The attractiveness of the demonstrations was not helped by the fact that the opposition tried to “sit on them” from the first moment. The analyst believes that “it is not surprising that these political actors have not become more popular since April.” Currently, civic initiatives independent of official politics appear disorganized and weak. There are no experienced leaders and organizers.
“What we are witnessing now is not real mass demonstrations, but just demonstrations”
– says Tibor Attila Nagy.
MKKP occupation of the bridge against Kata law on July 15
Photo: Dóra Cserdi / Azonnali
The interesting question is how large crowds will be able to mobilize it with the series of national demonstrations announced by Mai Hazanak starting in August, not just the capital. The political scientist believes: “I see a lot more fantasy in this than in the protests of the past few days.”
At the same time, he also emphasizes that the political socialization of the majority of Hungarians, in contrast to Western models, makes them not respond to unpopular actions with open protests. According to the analyst, the majority will likely wait for the specific rules to be published, and in the meantime, they will search for potential vulnerabilities according to old habits.
Instead of collective resistance, the majority are looking for individual ways to survive.
At the same time, the political expert is of the opinion that in the long run the government will likely have to count on a significant loss of popularity, but in addition to the state of the opposition, much also depends on how many ways it will exit the party. In order to alleviate the burdens that fall upon them suddenly.
open image: MKKP occupation of the bridge against Kata law on July 15
Photo: Dóra Cserdi / Immediate
