We are moving further and further from the feasibility of the one and a half degree target: the increase in global average temperature continues unabated.
The most recent version was posted on April 21st Report of the World Meteorological Organization (World Meteorological Organization, World Meteorological Organization), where the state of the climate in 2022 is presented based on measured data. Unfortunately, the trend remains worrying, as can be seen in the figure below – the global average temperature has continued to rise, and the past eight years (2015-2022) are also the eight warmest years since records began in 1850, although From the fact that in the past three years, the cooling effect of La Niña has prevailed. In 2022, the annual average global temperature, including land and ocean surface, will exceed the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) by 1.15 degrees; So we’re very close to the psychological 1.5-degree limit – after crossing, the safe weather view is in serious jeopardy.
The deviation of the global mean temperature compared to the pre-industrial level (1850-1900) between 1850 and 2022 based on the measurement results of six global databases. source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Looking at the regional distribution, it is clear that strong positive anomalies characterize Europe, Asia, many regions of Africa, northern regions of Australia, and the eastern coast of North America. In Europe, for example, last summer was the warmest since the measurements began.
Warming can be seen in Arctic regions as well: As a result of warmer-than-usual conditions, Antarctic sea ice volume has fallen to the lowest level recorded to date. In addition, the melting of several European glaciers has been shown to have reached a record level.
Mean annual temperature deviation from normal (1991-2020) near the surface in 2022, based on data from six global databases. source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise, so it is necessary to take more and more effective steps.
Global monthly averages of the concentrations of the most important greenhouse gases between 1984 and 2021. Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Sea level rise and ocean temperature and acidification also hit record levels, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming centuries. Climate change will undoubtedly lead to mass extinctions, and many species around the world are already at risk. Because of the inertia of the system, the change that is already taking place will continue unabated for a long time, even if humanity takes immediate steps to reduce emissions. The frequency of extreme weather events is increasing; A large part of the world is affected by droughts, floods and heat waves, and we must prepare for an increase in these waves in the future.
However, we must not let go of the opportunity we still have. The window of time is narrowing – we are in the final moments when we can still do something to leave a planet with a variable, but still livable climate, to our descendants.
