The United Nations has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon will increase in the coming months, which could lead to higher global temperatures and new heat records.
According to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 60 percent chance of an El Nino forming by the end of July, and an 80 percent chance by September, Phys.org reports.
This is changing weather and climate patterns around the world
Wellfran said okea frustratedAnd Head of the WMO Regional Climate Prediction Service at a press conference in Geneva.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that recurs naturally every few years. At this time, heat waves are becoming more frequent all over the world, droughts are developing in some areas, while heavy rains are developing in others. A similar phenomenon last occurred in 2018-2019. However, since 2020, the world has been hit by an exceptionally long La Nina (opposite cooling to El Niño), which ended earlier this year and gave way to the current state of neutrality.
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Despite this, according to the United Nations, the past eight years have been the warmest on record, although the La Nina cooling effect prevailed in about half of that period. Without this weather phenomenon, the greenhouse effect could have been worse. WMO President Petteri Taalas said La Niña served as a temporary brake on rising global temperatures. in the current situation. Now, however, the world must prepare for an El Niño formation. He also warned that the expected arrival of global warming would lead to another peak in global temperatures, increasing the chance of breaking temperature records.
There are currently no predictions for the strength or duration of El Niño. The last period was considered very weak, but the period leading up to it, from 2014 to 2016, was considered one of the strongest ever, with disastrous consequences. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicated that 2016 was the warmest year, and this is due to two factors: on the one hand, a very strong El Nino effect prevailed, and on the other hand, climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases jointly contributed to breaking temperature records. .
Since the effect of El Niño on global temperature usually takes effect in the year following its formation, the effect is likely to be strongest in 2024.
announced the organization.
Taalas highlighted that the expected arrival of El Nino could also have positive effects, such as mitigating drought in the Horn of Africa and other associated impacts. At the same time, he warned that more extreme climate and weather events could also develop, so effective early warning systems are needed to prevent damage and protect human lives.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), no two El Niño events are the same, and its effects depend in part on the season. That is why meteorologists will constantly monitor it. The climate pattern occurs on average every 2-7 years and typically lasts 9-12 months. It is usually associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Precipitation is generally higher in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while severe droughts may occur in parts of Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia.
During the Northern Hemisphere summer, the warm waters of El Niño can stimulate hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while preventing them from forming in the Atlantic basin, the World Meteorological Organization said.
(phys.org)
