The European Commission’s annual report shows that the EU community is preparing for a second winter of limited Russian gas supplies, after Moscow decided to significantly limit supplies in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. According to the supplementary material, Russian gas imports are expected to fall to 40-45 billion cubic meters this year, which means a significant decrease compared to the 155 billion cubic meters it imported in 2021, before the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, renewable energy capabilities are growing significantly. The State of the Energy Union report links to several articles and separate summaries have been prepared for each country analyzed Available here.
The authority’s statement warned against complacency, even though the most serious effects of the crisis have already passed, and the total capacity for gas storage has increased 98% around. He highlighted continued weakness in energy markets, increased subsidies for fossil fuels during the crisis, continued high inflation rates, and the need to protect critical infrastructure against potential sabotage. According to recent news, it is not Russia, but a Chinese container ship that may be behind the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline:
To compensate for the decline in Russian gas supplies, European Union countries have increased their imports from alternative suppliers, while at the same time reducing their gas consumption. Norway has replaced Russia as the EU’s main pipeline gas supplier, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, primarily from the United States, have also risen, the article summarizes.
High gas storage capacity acts as a buffer against potential supply disruptions in the winter months. In addition, the unprecedented expansion of solar energy has reduced reliance on gas-fired power plants this year, especially in the summer, when air conditioning use is at its peak, Reuters notes in its summary.
But analysts warn that although a return to last year’s record high prices is unlikely, global gas markets remain unusually tight. This carries the risk of higher prices due to cold weather or further supply shocks.
The Commission also expressed concern that EU countries are not expanding their capacity to use renewable energy sources fast enough to achieve the legally binding target of Accordingly, by 2030, 42.5% of total energy must be provided from renewable sources, which is almost double the current rate.
To accelerate progress towards this goal, the Commission has presented a plan to boost Europe’s wind energy sector, which is currently suffering from high inflation rates and increasing competition from Chinese companies. We wrote about this in a separate article here:
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