A balanced current account with a slight surplus may still be with us next year For the global economy Experts. According to Zoltan Torok, senior analyst at Raiffeisen Bank, the state budget deficit will be higher than planned.
An exchange rate of HUF 380/EUR can be calculated.
Economic growth has already begun in the second half of this year, driven by one or two industrial activities, such as car battery production and agriculture, but lower energy imports are also contributing.
Household consumption and investment show a decline, but will improve next year, when EU money actually arrives. He stated that with lower interest rates on loans, large-scale public investments could be initiated. Lower inflation and an 8-10% increase in wages could contribute to reviving household consumption. The expert believes:
The inflation rate, which was between 6 and 7 percent at the end of this year, may fall to 5 percent in one year.
If this happens, the population is expected to return to the level of consumption it was in the first half of 2022. “Monetary policy can continue with cautious interest rate cuts – the policy rate is expected to reach 7 percent in mid-2024 and 6 percent at the end of the year.” Zoltan Torok explained. He added: Next year, we can stay with a balanced current account that has a slight surplus.
Ambitious deficit target
Meanwhile, David Nemeth, senior analyst at K&H Bank, told Világgazdaság that the construction of new production capacities and their subsequent sharing in production will boost growth in Hungary.
Household spending may rise in the summer. He pointed out that European Union funds could give the country a surplus through investments, and with all this we will achieve economic growth of 2.8 percent. According to him, inflation will continue to decline until next April to about 4.5-5 percent.
The deficit target of less than 3% of GDP appears overly ambitious, given 2023 revenues and the general budget balance.
David Nemeth added.
Although, according to the expert, the state can rely on more tax revenues with the recovery in residential demand, it is also expected that the interest rate ceiling will be canceled as of next July 1, in light of the general budget deficit of about 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). By the end of 2024, the base interest rate may fall to around 6%. In light of this, the expert expected that the forint exchange rate against the euro would range between 376 and 392 for the new year.
