This was announced by the new Taiwanese President, Lai Ching-te, who has just taken office, in recent weeks His government Members. Instead of major changes in positions, there have been only resets, indicating that Lai will strive for continuity in relations between Taiwan and China. At the same time People's republic of China The Progressive Democratic Party, which won its third consecutive presidential election in January this year, is considered a separatist force. In the election campaign, Beijing – referring to Lai – considers those fighting for Taiwan's independence to be “extremely harmful.” Shoot it; After Lai won the presidential elections, the resistance began Advertised Against the “independence provocations” of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although all ASEAN member states recognize the People's Republic of China, when open military conflict threatens in the Taiwan Strait, ASEAN always calls on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint” and abstain from voting. . He encourages Of “provocative actions.” The extreme tension currently observed is due in part to the election of Lai and the Chinese military in Taiwan of its activities Attributable, in part American inside Japan Due to the increasing presence of the army in the region. ASEAN, as a directly interested party, fears involvement in a cross-Strait military conflict.
US access last year Owns To strategic military bases in the Philippines In the event of a conflict It could prove to be a critical resource in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. About 700,000 immigrants from Southeast Asia and 30,000 students from Southeast Asia live in Taiwan. Taiwan is a major exporter of electronic components and integrated circuits imported by ASEAN member states, and China and ASEAN are each other's top trading partners. A military conflict between Beijing and Taipei would also affect international air and sea transport routes to Southeast Asia, causing disruptions to global supply and production chains.
All these interests are there They make The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) called for an unusually proactive response to the unstable security situation in the Taiwan Strait. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has repeatedly publicly affirmed in recent years that it is ready to play a constructive role in promoting peaceful dialogue among all parties. Although the offer is Taiwan only Welcome him, Since possible specific steps are uncertain, ASEAN will likely try to work constructively through two intergovernmental coordination and cooperation mechanisms with a focus on security policy that it leads.
One mechanism is the ASEAN Regional Forum at the level of foreign ministers ( ASEAN Regional Forum ). Taiwan, which is not a member state, can rely on the patronage of the United States, members of the European Union, Australia and Japan to protect its interests. Member China is likely to oppose any declarations or efforts to support or gain Taiwan membership, even as an observer.
The other mechanism in the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus ( Adm + ) In order to increase the efficiency of security and defense cooperation. Taiwan Strait issues can be discussed within the framework of the maritime security dimension of ADMM+.
However, mechanisms that use a consensus-based decision-making model are not international dispute resolution instruments. It works to build mutual political understanding and enhance long-term defense cooperation. ASEAN is neither able nor willing to assume the role of primary mediator, but is instead able to promote the institutionalization of multilateral defense cooperation, thereby gradually reducing the level and intensity of tensions. So ASEAN's moves are unlikely to lead to a quick resolution of the conflict between China and Taiwan, but they may help preserve the status quo and thus peace. Balls bounce in other stakeholders' court.
The author is a researcher at the Eurasian Center of Janus Neumann University
(Cover Photo: Sing Shu Yi/Norphoto/Getty Images)
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