Photo: International Basketball Federation
The women's basketball competition at the Paris 2024 Olympics kicks off on Sunday. The 12-team tournament will see matches played in three groups of four. The top two teams in the groups and the two best third-placed teams advance to the quarterfinals. The rankings are then established, based on which the national teams are sorted into caps and the quarterfinal pairings are determined, and the division is formed.
Before the start of the women's basketball tournament, we asked our permanent expert, Andrea Karolyi, a seven-time Hungarian champion as a player, eight-time Hungarian Cup winner, two-time Euroleague bronze medalist, European champion with a 3×3 coaching team and two-time World Championship silver medalist.
Group 1: Serbia, Spain, China, Puerto Rico
“Of this group, I think Spain and China will finish first and second. I say this even though I don’t think the Chinese are as strong as we could expect them to be based on their results in the past few years, the silver medal at the 2022 World Championships and the 2023 Asian Championship title.
China didn’t do well in the Olympic qualifiers in February and in the games since then, and that could confuse this group. What you can expect is that Puerto Rico isn’t among the top teams and that Serbia isn’t what it was in its prime years with Jelena Brooks and Sonja Vasic (Petrovic). So the Chinese have a good chance of making it to one of the top spots.
Of course, there is no denying that the Serbs have managed to fight for an Olympic place even in the midst of a generational change. I think it is huge that they can be on the field. They had great luck with the previous generation and with an Olympic semi-final and two European Championship titles, they got everything they could out of it. Their current playing power should not be compared to that. Here, the question for me will be whether they can push anything else besides Puerto Rico. For example, if China is surprised, it could mean a ticket to the quarter-finals.
I would like to draw a comparison between Serbian basketball and Spanish basketball, which is able to organize itself and start at a higher level even after a generational change. If we look at the results of the youth team, it is enough to note this summer: silver at the European U20 Championship, bronze at the World U17 Championship. Even if they do not win these championships in a row, they are always among the elite. Their senior national team has been significantly strengthened with Megan Gustafsson, and they have put the right person in a good position. I expect a lot from them!”
Group 2: Canada, Nigeria, Australia, France
“Australia will be represented by Lauren Jackson, who will compete again in the Olympics after 2012. I think it is brave to invite a 43-year-old back to a world championship. I don’t even know if their national team, which is a serious force anyway, requires him at all. It is a double-edged sword, because if he succeeds of course there is no need to explain it, but if he doesn’t succeed, it is a big loss for Jackson as well. Even if it does not diminish his merits, if he “falls and rises” in the matches and cannot get close to his former self, then it will not be a pretty farewell from then on.
The reason I'm cautious is because we can't think about Hungary with the mindset that there's a world star here and we have to give him a chance at the Olympics, even if he's not good, but we'll take him because he's done a lot for the country. Because Australia rightly see that this group Canada can be beaten and Nigeria has to be beaten, so they can qualify. And from there anything can happen.
For me, Canada was not convincing in the Olympic qualifiers in Sopron. I think they were probably the weakest team of our three competitors. They are fourth in the World Championships as of 2022, but from this distance it is impossible to judge the impact their team has had. How much does the strength of the national team play, for example, affect the fact that they put the quota gain on their banner in the 3×3 match? I see it as influential. Since I am biased towards the 3×3, it seems to me an enviable and brave decision that they have made: they have remained competitive in the 5:5 line, but they have also channeled more quality into the 3×3.
A few years ago, Nigeria were competing with a strong team, at least in terms of names. They are coming as the defending African champions, but I don’t expect them to have a say in the affairs of the big teams in this group. Especially since the fourth team in this quartet, which we haven’t talked about yet, is the hosts France.
Gabby Williams and Marine Johannes are back in the French team after missing last year’s European Championship. While I disagree, the WNBA has the status to turn down continental tournaments. Fortunately, the Olympics haven’t happened yet, as the Olympics is still a big word for European nations. Last year, they won a bronze medal at the European Championships without these two players, and they can beat Canada and Nigeria in this group, so from now on, one win is enough to get into the top four. This is clearly a success at the home Olympics.
This team is fundamentally good, and they know that the home Olympics are full of things to experience when you are part of them. We can only speculate about that. The French are a self-conscious nation, going into every event with the intention of winning. In women's basketball, three years ago in Tokyo, the hosts reached the final, and even now such a home achievement is unimaginable.
At the same time, I see the potential Japanese and French march from a different angle. While we emphasized self-awareness in the case of the French, all Japanese athletes have their respect and humility, which elevates even a team that does not necessarily resemble a basketball team. “If my coach, my country, thinks I can do it, I will do it.” – may sound like their thinking. They have had this attitude for three years. At the same time, the fact of the ranking could elevate the French core team to a better quality.”
Group 3: Germany, USA, Japan, Belgium
“By the previous thought process, I partly led this group. For me, it is realistic in this quartet that the last Japanese to get a silver medal will only finish fourth. There are many examples in sports where such a great result is achieved once and then a certain team cannot come close to it. The ninth place in the World Championships or their performance seen in Sopron is closer to the real knowledge of Japan.
Diana Taurasi of the United States is preparing for her sixth Olympics. For her, I feel like her WNBA numbers will be far from her best in many ways, but I’m sure if she plays in the Olympics, it won’t be too bad. By the way, if she can’t play and they have to finish the Olympics with 11 people, the Americans can handle that too. This team will roll better in their field than the men. It would be a bigger surprise to me if they don’t win than if their national team, which is reminiscent of the Dream Team, failed.
Caitlin Clark’s absence has generated a lot of articles in recent weeks, but there is a level of sport where hype is not everything. There are other aspects to consider, and the Olympics are one of them. He will certainly bring a lot to the WNBA and women’s basketball in terms of viewership. Whether American women’s basketball will become more professional with him or whether they have “just” cultivated a media-savvy star remains to be seen. It is hard to believe that he could follow in the footsteps of Diana Taurasi. In his own way, Taurasi was a star during his college days, but there was no social media back then. When an athlete runs out of water, it can be very bad. Which is why it comes as no surprise to me that he was not selected. Clark, who was born in 2000, could still make it to four Olympics. If you fight for your spot, you will get your chance.
The Belgians are very strong as a team, but they have few good players besides Emma Meesseman. Especially with Julie Allemand out. With a bit of exaggeration, I can also say that we see them play, and we take it for granted when they win big games, but in the meantime, the question is, how did they do all this? Meesseman is a genius, it's true, but swallows don't make summers. And that's where national team captain Rachid Meziane comes in. We talked about the coach of Villeneuve d'Ascq at the club level and in the Euroleague: at first, his team looks like a “picked” company, but he still went to the Euroleague Final 4 with them. That's the real success of a coach if he is able to manage everyone's position well, and I feel that just happened with the Belgians.
At the same time, the Germans feel that they are preparing for two world championships that require them to have a strong national team again. They will co-host the 2025 European Championship and will host the 2026 World Cup alone. If there is will, cooperation and, of course, a clear goal, it is possible to reach a higher level relatively “quickly”. Even if most of the team is not currently training in Germany.
“There is a good chance of picking the top two teams in each group, but the outcome and what it means for the third is a matter of luck. That’s why it’s hard to guess, but given the final result, the success of the United States can’t be in doubt. I would risk the Belgians taking the silver medals, and I would put a European team, say Spain or Germany, in third place.”
