The outcome of the US presidential election will likely depend on swing voters in seven swing states, where the outcome is less predictable than states with known Republican or Democratic majorities. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are focusing on these battleground states before the November 5 elections.
As the US presidential election approaches on November 5, presidential candidate Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have made multiple visits to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, hoping to win over undecided voters who might swing the outcome in their favor. Along with four other swing states, these three states will largely determine who becomes the 47th president of the United States. In fact, the final result may depend on as many as 150,000 votes coming from these states.
What do you need to know about the huge influence of swing states on presidential elections?
What are swing states, also known as battleground states?
Swing states are hotly contested states whose results will ultimately determine the presidential election. This year it's Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Battleground states have changed over time, as have demographics, key issues, and political parties.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are known for their working-class populations and have traditionally been dominated by Democrats. In all three places, there was a shift in 2016, and Trump won the majority, criticizing the Democratic-led government's policy regulating international trade, which he says favors the elite at the expense of workers. He promised to impose tariffs on imported goods and restore manufacturing jobs.
North Carolina and Georgia traditionally have Republican majorities, but the race has tightened in recent years. New residents arrived in North Carolina from New York and other traditionally Democratic states, while Georgia's share of blacks and nonwhites increased. The majority of black Americans traditionally vote for Democrats.
Why does the electoral system work this way?
David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, told Free Europe that the phenomenon of swing states is a result of the country's complex electoral voting system and the fact that in many states the same party has won presidential elections repeatedly. .
Unlike the presidential election system in most countries, the United States does not elect a president based on the results of citizens' votes, but rather the winner is determined based on the results of individual state elections. “In all 50 states of the United States, as well as in D.C (Washington, D.C.) There are separate elections for the president.” – Published in 2019, Schultz said Presidential swing states Book editor.
With two exceptions, all states award all of their electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most votes there; for example, in Pennsylvania, the winner receives all 19 electoral votes. A candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
The number of electoral votes for each state is determined roughly in proportion to population. Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming have three electoral votes, as does the District of Columbia (Washington, D.C.). California comes in first place with 54 votes, followed by Texas with 40, Florida with 30, and New York with 28.
21st. In every presidential election since the beginning of the twentieth century, the same party has received a majority of the votes in 38 states, often winning by large margins. Only twelve states have held at least one election since 2000. In some states, it goes back even further: in Minnesota, only a Democratic candidate has won since 1976, while in Texas, only a Republican candidate has won since 1980 .
What about this year?
According to 270towin.com, an independent polling and analysis site, Harris has every reason to get at least 226 electoral votes by winning so-called Democratic states like California, Illinois and New York. On the same basis, Trump can count on at least 219 electoral votes from the states of Texas, Florida and Tennessee, for example. This leaves seven swing states with 93 electoral votes to decide the outcome. According to Schultz, between 150,000 and 200,000 votes in the seven swing states – about 0.1% of the total expected vote – will decide who will be in the White House in January.
What is the key to winning in a swing situation?
In battleground states — and thus entire elections — victory is often limited to a few counties, such as Maricopa County in Arizona, Wayne County in Michigan, and Brown County in Wisconsin. “In my opinion, elections are really limited to a few swing voters in a few swing districts in a few swing states.” Schultz said. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the most important of the seven swing states. Lackawanna County, which is headquartered in Scranton, is key in that regard, he added.
“As Scranton decides, the US presidential election will be decided. In 2024, Lackawanna County will be decisive again, deciding whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be president,” he added. – books Schultz recently posted on his blog.
