A study published in the Lancet Public Health journal found that the number of deaths may rise in the coming period due to rising weather temperatures. The Guardian.
Researchers say the findings indicate that climate change may pose unprecedented challenges to public health systems, especially during heat waves.
“As the climate warms and populations age, more heat-related deaths are expected, while cold-related deaths will decrease only slightly,” said David Garcia León, co-author of the study.
Warm weather could kill 129,000 people each year if temperatures rise by 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
Today, the number of heat-related deaths in Europe stands at 44,000. However, according to the study, the number of annual deaths caused by cold and heat in Europe may rise from 407,000 currently to 450,000 by 2100.
The research findings raise questions about climate deniers' arguments that global warming is good for society because fewer people die in the cold.
Madeleine Thompson, head of the Wellcome Institute for Health Research, said: “This research highlights how many lives are at risk if we do not act quickly enough on climate change.”
He pointed to research linking extreme heat to miscarriage and poor mental health.
There are indirect effects. We've already seen how extreme heat can lead to crop failure, wildfires, and damage to critical infrastructure, all of which impact our lives.
Madeleine Thompson added.
Addressing the root of the problem is essential
The researchers modeled data from 854 cities to estimate the number of deaths caused by hot and cold temperatures across the continent. They found that heat may cause more deaths across Europe, but southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, as well as parts of France, are most at risk.
They predicted that heat-related deaths would increase by 13.5% if the planet warmed by 3°C, with most deaths occurring over the age of 85.
The researchers urged governments to consider policies to reduce the number of deaths, such as investing in hospitals, developing action plans, and isolating buildings. They pointed out that the expected increase in deaths is due to changes in demographics and climate in Europe.
“If we want to avoid the worst-case scenario, it is essential that we address the roots of the problem by tackling greenhouse gas emissions,” said ISGlobal epidemiologist Elissa Gallo.
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