The strengthening of the far right was predicted by a recent analysis published by the magazine Europe Elected. EURACTIV to attest. (Telex interviewed the organization’s founder a few months ago.)
According to the summary, the far-right Identity and Democracy parties will win one and a half times more seats than the current sixty in the European Parliament elections next June. (The result is somewhat distorted by the fact that the representative body currently consists of 705 members and 720 members as of 2024). According to Elected Europe, the 87 states will mark a historical culmination of the group, which, among other things,
The faction will become the fourth largest force in the European Parliament,
It will rise above the European Conservatives and Reformists, which consists mainly of Eurosceptic parties. The latter group can count on 82 more seats than the current group, and Fidesz can join it as well. The 12-member delegation from Hungary’s largest government party sits among the independents, but Fidesz MEP Tamas Deutsch spoke in the summer about the possibility of joining the European Constitutional Council before next June’s elections. Party representatives have already moved to the European Commission in 2021 in an EU advisory body, the Committee of the Regions. (European electors still count Fidesz among the independents.)
According to the Elections Europe poll, approximately the same number of representatives of the far left and the two main factions, the Socialists and the center-right European People’s Party, will remain after the elections.
Liberals, especially the Greens, have a lot to lose.
The former would fall 12 places, the latter 20 places, which for an already smaller Green Party would mean – coupled with an increase in the European Parliament – a truly radical decline. While 10.2% of the EP is now granted, according to the analysis, only 7.2% of this amount will remain as of June 2024.
It’s still generally valid on EP
A grand populist-socialist-liberal coalition could still retain a majority
With 56.2 percent of the seats. A coalition of the People’s Party, Eurosceptics and the far-right, sometimes promoted from Fidesz, would not be able to give a majority, achieving only 47.2 percent together. By including the current 12 Fidesz seats, this percentage could already reach 49.4%, and it is possible to increase this percentage by including others (for example, the now very popular National Kurdistan Party). There are significant differences in principle between the three groups, and national member parties often compete with each other, but there is less factional discipline in the European Parliament, and ad hoc alliances are frequent, so Eurosceptics and growing far-right parties have a greater chance. To assert their will.
