America will vote in a month: Kamala Harris leads nationally, but Donald Trump's success is more important

There is only one month left until the US presidential elections, and the election campaign is in full swing. From now on, the results of the latest polls will be particularly interesting, the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and the current Vice President, Democrat Kamala Harris.

The latest surveys, as Gabor Cismazia, a research associate at the John Lukács Institute of the National Public Service University, noted on InfoRádio, show a mixed picture.

He pointed out that “one of the positions that most determine public discourse is that the competition is very close, the so-called popular vote, meaning that it is not possible to say who will win based on the majority vote.” Because since this is the least reliable poll, because it looks at who has more support in the United States of America, which has a population of about 330 million people, it does not show how close the competition is in each state, and where there is an advantage as for Trump or Harris, it Within the margin of error.

Nationally, Harris' advantage of 2.2 percent is now clear, but that says very little about the so-called battleground states where such close races tend to be decided. “There are a total of eight battleground states, where we are practically… Within the margin of error.”

A more reliable poll is also available that shows how the Electoral College is formed, that is, it takes into account how the number of electoral votes associated with each state is formed. Gabor Chimazia said there were a total of 538 voters, including Donald Trump leading by 219 to 215 in possible votes. The real decision will be made by 104 voters from the eight states witnessing an electoral battle. The American expert explained: “If we recorded the current polls, regardless of the margin of error, Donald Trump would have won the elections with a majority of approximately 24 voters in the Electoral College.”

That's why, he says, neither the Trump campaign nor the Harris campaign can slow down. He noted that as part of the campaign, President Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris at his side, visited the site of the devastation left by Hurricane Helen that day, expressing his intention to provide support, while Donald Trump recently returned to Butler (Pennsylvania), the same place that almost became There is a victim of an assassination attempt.

“Pennsylvania is also important because, in parallel with the presidential election, there are nationwide House elections for all of its 435 seats, as well as Senate elections, in a total of 33 of the 100 states, and these will determine the political range of the future president.” , and drew attention to Gabor Czesmazia.

According to the expert, with his return, Donald Trump certainly wants to clarify what he was trying to convey to his voters and uncertain voters, in order to create a common narrative as well as mobilization, the essence of which, according to Gabor Cismazia, is that the various attacks – the rule of law, the economic situation, lawsuits – His real target is not Trump, but the average voter, and in this way he tries to create sympathy, “trying to create a more human image” even among people. Uncertain voters.

“Just like Kamala Harris, Donald Trump is also a victim of his character assassination, but for a long time, so it is very important for him to express that he not only wants to win, but specifically wants to represent the United States,” the expert explained. actually.

According to him, Kamala Harris is in a similar situation because she was “well hidden” for four years, because her popularity was not particularly strong, far from being as strong as current polls indicate. He went to the site of Hurricane Helen's devastation in Florida with Joe Biden just to gain popularity, even though that is usually the job of the president.