Even after the European Parliament elections at the weekend, there is a strong correlation between the Roma population in the settlements and the Fidesz vote share, the G7 writes.
Even after the European Parliament elections at the weekend, there is a strong correlation between the Roma population in the settlements and Fidesz's vote share. Writes the Group of Seven. In fact, according to the paper, the correlation is getting stronger: in 2018, it was possible to measure a correlation of 0.29, but this had already risen to 0.47 by 2022, and this year the figure stands at 0.48.
According to the newspaper's analysis, a strong connection can be observed in settlements with smaller numbers of residents inhabited by Roma: if only the proportion of Roma and the size of the settlement in a given settlement could be known, it would be possible to find out with a good chance. What vote share can Fidesz expect?
The G7 took into account the proportion of the Roma population based on population census data for 2022, according to which the proportion of Roma in the country is 2.5 percent, and 209 thousand of them declared that they belong to the minority. At the same time, they point out that their real number is much higher, as according to 2018 research, it could have reached 876 thousand people.
Group of Seven says:
According to the research mentioned above, 8.8% of the population can be considered former Roma, but others have come to a similar conclusion. If they had voted for Fidesz at the same rate as the national average, the ruling party would have received 175,000 votes out of two million. On the other hand, if we calculate the data of a detailed public opinion poll in 2020, according to which the proportion of Fidesz voters is 10 percentage points higher in their district, this means that there are 215 thousand voters from the Roma government party.
He wrote in the newspaper article that three other parties have reached the threshold of entering the European Parliament. Based on the data, voting for the far-right Mi Hazank party was lower in settlements with a higher proportion of Roma, but the correlation is worse in the case of Tessa, that is, relatively fewer people voted for Tessa.
