In October, Hungary consumed minimal electricity, less than 0.3 percent (less than 10 GWh) than in October 2020, despite the fact that the average monthly temperature was much lower than the previous year, according to a system operator. Transport (MAVIR). Thus, the total consumption of 3936.6 GWh is the second highest value ever since October last year, and somewhat surprisingly, it is not the highest.
The main factors determining electricity consumption are mainly the performance of the economy, the weather and, more recently, the special impact caused by remote work introduced as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. It is clear that remote teamwork increases electricity consumption nationwide (as opposed to fuel consumption, for example), so while home consumption rises significantly, office use cannot fall below a certain level even if the majority of Laborers.
Changes in the proportion of people working from home are thought to follow the waves of the pandemic to some extent. With the current fourth wave of explosion actually starting in the second half of October, they should have been able to do relatively less work from their home office during the month compared to the October stage of the second wave, which began roughly exactly a year ago. (Just as the sense of security caused by the high vaccination rate may have reduced the need to work remotely this year.) In other words, this increase in consumption may have been weaker this year than it was a year ago.
The performance of the economy, i.e. the October GDP number, is currently unknown. This value is expected to be higher than it was in October of last year, but the economy made most of the recovery in the third quarter of last year and has since moved to more modest growth, so it is unlikely that economic growth alone will guarantee economic growth in October of this year A drastic shift occurred. High electricity consumption. Moreover, the sharp rise in energy prices this year, which will be sharp in the fall, could already have a negative impact on the performance of the economy, including electricity consumption.
However, the weather factor may have an upward effect on electricity consumption. In the mainland regions of the northern hemisphere, it was in October this year Hottest since measurements started, but it was the coolest in Europe and Hungary since 2016. The average monthly temperature of 10 degrees is clearly one of the lowest in recent decades, affecting heating demand accordingly. (The highest system load value of 7,119 MW was generated on February 11, 2021, during an unusually cold intrusion.)
Electricity, that is, an increase in the share of electricity in final energy consumption, has seasonal (air conditioners, heat pumps) and non-seasonal (electric cars) effects on consumption. This obviously has an upward effect on demand, but another associated effect that partially offsets growth is the rapid rollout of family-wide solar energy (HMKE) systems. As MAVIR notes, HMKE was not included in the TSO data, so its effects on production and consumption reduction can only be estimated.
Although their use is certainly less than that of large solar power plants, they can still produce more than 100 megawatts in sunny weather. Not much of this is consumed locally under normal cow-free conditions, but is taken over by the network, but due to remote work, this percentage has certainly improved, which may reduce centralized MAVIR consumption data. We don’t know the exact amount, due to the above, but the fact that the domestic HMKE solar capacity increased by more than 225 MW in the first six months of this year and approached 945 MW in the first half of the year according to the Hungarian Energy and Utilities Regulations: According to the (MEKH) office, It may increase in the coming years.
In five of the ten closed months of the year (February, March, April, June, July), electricity consumption in Hungary reached an absolute record, while the total consumption was the ninth. Monthly consumption (38,474.2 GWh) is more than 4 percent higher than the same period last year and about 2 percent higher than the previous record year, 2019.
For the whole of 2021, consumption is expected to increase by more than 5.5% (47,663 GWh) compared to the 2020 MAVIR data, but it may also exceed the record for 2019 by about 4.5%. Total domestic electricity consumption may continue to grow in the coming years, but it may remain below 1 percent year on year.
Cover photo: Eduardo Parra / Europa Press via Getty Images
