President Emmanuel Macron began negotiations with parliamentary parties on Friday to nominate a new prime minister for France, but it is not yet clear which party or parties will be able to form a government. In early July, a coalition of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front won the National Assembly elections, but the formation of a government has been stalled until the end of the Games due to the Paris Olympics. France is currently ruled by an executive government led by former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, but he will certainly not remain in office.
Under the French constitution, the president of the republic must appoint the new prime minister, taking into account the election results. The winning party coalition has nominated Lucie Castets, finance director of the Paris City Council, as prime minister, but according to Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations at Corvinus University in Budapest, she will almost certainly not be France’s next prime minister. The New People’s Front and the independents together have a total of 195 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, not enough for a majority to be able to govern, Anita Szokes told InfoRádio. An absolute majority requires the support of 289 representatives.
The French expert added: If Emmanuel Macron nevertheless accepts the nomination of the new Prime Minister of the Popular Front, then based on political logic and the most likely scenario, the other parties could submit a motion of no confidence in Lucie Castets – even on the day of her possible appointment.
If that happened, the government would fall immediately.
In order to avoid an immediate collapse, coalition negotiations are still ongoing. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the parties of the winning left-wing coalition will not want to cooperate with the far-left party France Insurgent, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which is also part of the coalition. Anita Szüx believes that the coalition is likely to break up in this way, but it is not certain that her parties will be excluded from the new government.
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to form a grand coalition government.
Although the Constitution does not require the President of the Republic to have any ideas about forming a coalition, Emmanuel Macron could contemplate a grand coalition, in effect made up of the two major extremist parties, the far-right National Unification Party led by Marine Le Pen and the already mentioned far-left France Insoumise party would bring together all the other parties to form a government. Anita Szüx pointed out: This would be an unprecedented collaboration, because
Such broad political cooperation has never been achieved in the history of the Fifth Republic.
According to the expert, the chances of forming a grand coalition are slim, but it seems certain that Emmanuel Macron's party, Ensemble, which came second in the early elections, will be part of the new government. But according to Anita Szucs, it is almost impossible to predict with whom a coalition will be formed in order to obtain a parliamentary majority.
He sees the most likely scenario as one in which the left and right parties that can coalesce around the group form a government with a left-wing majority. He believes that a party alliance between Emmanuel Macron and the Socialist Party could build a long-term cooperation.
The current uncertainty could end next week. According to the initial schedule, they could announce who will be France's new prime minister.
