In Hungary, consumer prices rose by 14.6 percent in 2022. Inflation peaked at the beginning of this year, and in October the index fell below 10 percent. According to Sazadvig, the average monetary deterioration rate could reach 17.7 percent in 2023, 5.9 percent in 2024, and 3.7 percent in 2025 as trend-like inflation declines.
This year, Magyar Nemzeti Bank committed to lowering its benchmark interest rate: in September 2023, the benchmark interest rate reached the base rate level, which the central bank has since lowered in several steps.
A gradual easing of monetary policy is expected in the coming years, and inflation may return to the central bank’s target range of 3.1 percent in 2025, they wrote in their forecasts.
Overall, consumption will decline by 2.0 percent and investment by 12.1 percent in 2023, and consumption may rise gradually from the beginning of 2024, by 2.6 percent in 2024 and by 2.0 percent in 2025. Investments are expected to increase By 8.1 percent in 2024 and by 3.2 percent in 2025.
Economic research analysts believe that government spending may be more restrained this year by about 2.0 percent, then rise by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025. According to their calculations, exports may increase by 0.5 percent this year, while Imports may decline by 3.9 percent. Exports are expected to increase by 2.8 percent in 2024 and 7.4 percent in 2025, while imports may increase by 4.5 and 6.7 percent in the following two years.
According to their expectations, the employment and unemployment rate will continue to rise this year, and the latter will reach 4.2 percent next year, then by 2025 the unemployment rate will return to 4.0 percent as employment rates rise.
