It is not certain that a new government will be formed quickly after the September elections in Germany, Ms. Auguston Samuel, director of the Perspective Institute, said at a conference on the subject.
“The most likely scenario is a joint government of blacks, in which union and green parties are formed. Opinion polls consistently show that these two parties could gain a secure parliamentary majority of more than fifty percent, but if they do not, they could join the Democratic Party. 10 percent free, in which case a coalition of three parties can be formed.”
A situation that cannot be compared to your country
The analyst added that the German elections are very different from the Hungarian: they are relative and not related to the struggle of two large political blocs, recalling that the elections are about the struggle of six parties.
“The proportional electoral system means that we can take the poll data almost one by one as the result of a standing election, and in allocating seats we just have to multiply those numbers by the number of votes that does not result in delegation. So, I can say that there are fifty percent black and green, and in fact the FDP, marked in black, green and yellow, is gaining seventy percent, according to the current research,” explained Ms. Auguston Samuel.
Angela Merkel will leave Germany after 16 years: her successor is expected to be Armin Laschet, the elected head of the CDU, so she will be able to form a government. His political style and perception of politics thus far show the image of a man seeking a compromise.
A European transformation may come
Ms. Aguston Samuel said that the EU program for the parties expected to join the coalition contains almost the same, and this is different from the way the Hungarian government envisions the future of the union.
“It is clear from the three electoral platforms that the European Parliament wants to further strengthen the European Parliament.
All parties agree on the need to access the electoral system and create cross-border lists, i.e. party lists ripped from national frameworks.
Ms. Auguston Samuel said this would rearrange the balance of power in Parliament.
At the moment, small countries are overweight, and large countries such as Germany are underweight, but their plans can give the image of the “more German” European Parliament. The director of the Perspective Institute, said that member states will be weakened, and the European Commission will be strengthened through electoral platforms. The party’s programs also suggest protecting NGOs in the EU: they want European regulation, not national, and direct European funding to the organisations.
The Rule of Law Foundation promises similarly vigorous debates: it is clear from the programs that they call for a tightening, tightening, and rapid implementation of the rule of law machinery. According to Mraz Auguston Samuel, the intention to slow the EU expansion can also be read in party political platforms, but at the same time it is moving towards a compromise on the issue of immigration.
The Black and Green Alliance is not good news from a Hungarian point of view
Gergeli Barhl, director of the Institute for Strategic Studies at the National University of Public Administration, said at the online conference The German Choice from the Hungarian Eye:
According to Gergeli Berhl, Germany is not a rainbow, a place that has lost its soil and is deprived of its values. The expert said that the zeitgeist is now leading to a black-green alliance, which is undoubtedly bad news from a Hungarian point of view.
“This is not a good direction for German political development either: it is always worth saying that we are talking about a completely different political culture, with the possibility of having different political groups in each province,” he said.
Opening photo: MTI / AP pool / Michael Sohn
