In what environment can the Hungarian economy operate and how can it perform in the next year and a half? Let's discuss this with experts and decision-makers at the Budapest Economic Forum!
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) has significantly worsened its forecast for GDP growth this year and next. The central bank expects economic growth this year of 1-1.8%, whereas three months ago it expected growth of 2-3%. In the past few months, the growth outlook has deteriorated significantly, which is why most experts have lowered their GDP growth forecasts, so it is not surprising that the multinational bank has also intervened, but with the 1-1.8% forecast, the central bank has joined the pessimists.
While the government expects growth of around 2% (the Ministry of Finance expects 1.8-2.2%, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs 2.2-2.3%), according to the National Multinational Bank, growth could easily reach only 1%, and growth will be slow.
According to MNB, the economy may grow more slowly in 2025 than previously expected. According to the latest forecast, GDP growth next year will be between 2.7% and 3.7%, while three months ago there was a chance of GDP growth of 4.5%. At the same time, they revised their forecast upwards for 2026, because in that year GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% is considered achievable.
The central bank has only slightly changed its inflation forecast. This year, the currency depreciation is expected to reach 3.5-3.9%, compared to the previous forecast of 3.5-4.5%. Thanks to the positive inflation data received in the meantime, the range has narrowed, so the currency depreciation this year will almost certainly be below 4%.
More details coming soon.
Cover image source: Portfolio
