With yesterday’s defeat to Sweden, it was decided that the Hungarian women’s handball team would no longer be among the top eight. However, the possibility of qualifying for the Olympics is not completely over yet, but the road leading to it is very bumpy. Below, I will try to outline our chances and what needs to happen for us to be in one of the qualification positions.
Who can play the Olympic qualifiers?
The following teams can play in the Olympic qualifiers:
- World Cup 2-7. Ranked teams.
- The best two teams did not win the European Championship and did not qualify for the World Cup.
- 4 teams from outside Europe.
You don’t have to deal with the latter, it can’t be ours. 2-7. The space is not there on paper, but it is there in reality. Because if there are teams in these places that have already qualified for the Olympics, they will fall back. There are currently 3 teams related to this matter:
- France (Director)
- Norway (European champion)
- Brazil (South America)
So, if someone from these 3 teams is in the top 7, the qualifying spot will be pushed back. Currently, two of them are confirmed, with the Norwegians and French both confirmed in the top eight. So, from now on, the 9th place team in the World Cup remains eligible for the Olympics, and 10th too, if the Brazilians are ahead of us (there might be a chance of that too). Since 9-12. There is no playoff for place, so ninth place will go to the third best group.
Additionally, we have a slim chance that 11th place in EC will be enough for the qualifying quota. For this reason, the current quotas and qualifying places (i.e. a total of 9 places) must be taken by the teams that finish ahead of us in the table. Of the ten teams in front of us, Slovenia probably won’t get a place, but of the remaining nine teams, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, France and the Netherlands already know they will get it, and it is also certain that at least one of Montenegro and Croatia will get it. also. So, the European Championship qualification spot is ours if Spain and Croatia/Montenegro are selected as the final two World Cup qualifying places. This is also not hopeless, but the Czechs can intervene significantly in this matter.
What will happen if we win against the Croats?
If we beat the Croats, we will permanently finish third in the group with 6 points and a goal difference of at least +20. However, in this case, we cannot leave the European Championship, because Croatia finished there before us. So we should aim for ninth place (or tenth, if Brazil is ahead of us).
What is practically certain is that we are better than third place in two groups, because from the second and third groups Slovenia, Romania and Poland can take third place, also with 6 points each. But at the moment, the goal difference between Slovenia is – seven, Romania – 5, and Poland – 16. So, for the best Romania to come close to us, they must win with a difference of at least 25 goals, which I think is completely unrealistic. So there is no chance that anyone will finish in two groups ahead of us.
What is even more exciting is the fourth group. The Netherlands currently leads the standings with 8 points and a large goal difference. The Spaniards are in second place with 6 points and a goal difference of +13, while the Czechs are also in third place with 6 points and a goal difference of +11. Brazil ranks fourth with 4 points and a difference of +19. In the final round, the Spaniards will play against the Netherlands, while the Czechs will face Brazil.
In fact, there would be quite a few good scenarios for us here: If the Brazilians beat the Czechs, that would be very good for us, because the other match doesn’t matter at all: If the Spaniards get a point, then 2. Spain, 3. Brazil 4. Czech Republic, and the goal difference will decide between us and the Brazilians. But the Brazilians could be ahead of us, because tenth place is also good. While if the Spaniards don’t score points, 3 teams will have 6-6-6 points, but in terms of goal difference, only the Brazilians can beat us, and they can finish ahead of us.
It is also a good option for us if the Czech Republic wins or draws with Brazil and the Netherlands beats Spain. In this case, the Czech Republic is in second place in the group, and Spain is in third place with 6 points and a maximum goal difference of 10, but then we will be ahead of them.
It is a very bad scenario for us if both the Czechs and the Spaniards get points. Then, the third-placed team in the group will have at least 7 points, making it impossible for the Hungarian national team to finish in ninth place.
What are our chances in case of defeat and draw?
If we lose, the Croats will have 7 points in our group, so either them or Montenegro if they beat Sweden. If Sweden were to be defeated, Montenegro would be in roughly the same position as us (with a slightly better or worse goal difference), and Croatia a step better with a 7-point difference. However, in this case, there is a good chance that both teams will reach one of the top 9 positions, which will give us the chance of coming out in 11th place in the European Commission.
But the big difference is that from now on, the Czechs beating the Spaniards, who are in 10th to 12th place with 6 points, is no longer a good scenario for us. They end up in one of the places. Because the Spaniards have reached ninth place in the European Group, in this case one of the shares that can be obtained from the European Group will belong to them, and the other will belong to the Slovenians. So the only good scenario for us is that the Spaniards get a point against the Netherlands and Brazil beats the Czechs.
The very small chance also means that if Croatia or Montenegro finishes 3rd in the group with 7 points, the Czech Republic draws, and Spain wins, the Czechs could drop to 10th place with 7 points and have no chance of getting outside the European Community. But it’s a shame to base it on that.
If we draw with the Croats, the situation is still the same, the only small difficulty is that they only have a goal difference of +5, so they will most likely be beaten by the Czechs or the Spaniards as third place in the group. The group, and even with a win of more than 10 goals, even the Romanians can be dangerous for them as well. So for us, a draw is actually worse than a loss in this match.
The situation is interesting from the point of view that the Group D matches will be played today, so we will already know what our chances are. There may be a scenario where our stake is certain, there may be a scenario that means a one-on-one match with the Croats, there may be a scenario that means our stake will definitely disappear. So, tomorrow you have to sit in front of the TV and cheer mostly for the Brazilians, and then depending on the final score of that match, for the Spaniards or the Dutch.
