Analysts in London expect Magyar Nemzeti (MNB) to embark on a series of rate hikes. They refer to the statement of Libyan National Bank Vice President Barnabas Ferraj on Monday, which said that the possibility of raising the base interest rate is indeed worth considering in June.
The inflation report for June is of particular interest.
An analyst at Morgan Stanley says inflation could remain above the 3 per cent target over the course of the year, leaving MNB with little room for maneuver to continue its extremely loose monetary policy.
Georgy Dayanov expects the Hungarian central bank to raise interest rates by 15-15 basis points in June and July.
It calculated that the central bank would return to its pre-epidemic rate of 0.9 percent by the end of the summer, closing the scissors 15 basis points between the current base interest rate of 0.6 percent and the current deposit rate of one week. 0.75 percent. The analyst also believes that another increase can be envisioned, as growth could accelerate further in the second half of the year if the economy resumes. The EU’s recovery program resources are also heating the economy, so upside risks to inflation may be present for a longer period of time. written by a file.
An analyst at Societe Generale expects a rapid rate hike from the MNB: 15 basis points in June. Marek Dreamal expects this to be followed by another 25-25 basis point rate hike in September and December. Thus, the base rate could rise to 1.25 percent this year. According to him, next year the central bank will implement another increase in interest rates by a total of 100 basis points.
The analyst expects the forint to strengthen in the long term as well: in the first quarter of 2022, 335 forint will have to be introduced per euro.
