The current Atlantic system is approaching a “devastating” tipping point. The collapse of the flow system that plays a role in regulating global climate will occur so quickly that adaptation will become impossible. Watchman.
Researchers were surprised by the expected speed of the collapse, although they say it is not yet possible to predict how quickly it will happen.
Using computer models and historical data, they developed an early warning system that could indicate the collapse of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC). They found that the AMOC is already on its way to an abrupt shift, something that has not happened in more than 10,000 years, and which will have catastrophic consequences for large areas of the world.
The AMOC, which includes parts of the Gulf Stream and other currents, transports heat and nutrients from the tropics to the North Atlantic Ocean as part of a global ocean circulation system. All this helps distribute energy on Earth and regulates the effect of human-caused global warming.
However, the system is being eroded by the melting of Greenland's glaciers and the Arctic ice sheet faster than expected, pumping fresh water into the sea and preventing saltier, warmer water from the south from sinking.
AMOC is at its weakest point in over a thousand years.
Until now, there has been no consensus on how dangerous it is. A 2023 study suggested that the tipping point could occur between 2025 and 2095, based on changes in sea surface temperature. However, according to the UK Met Office, a large and rapid change in the AMOC is highly unlikely in the 21st century.
The study, published in the journal Science Advances, broke new ground by looking for warning signs in salinity levels in the Atlantic Ocean between Cape Town and Buenos Aires. By simulating changes over 2,000 years in computer models of global climate, the researchers found this
A slow decline could lead to a sudden collapse in less than 100 years, with catastrophic consequences.
According to the study, the results provide a clear answer as to whether such a sudden change is possible.
This is bad news for the climate system and humanity, as the AMOC was until now thought to be just a theoretical concept
– Writing researchers.
Their study also charted some of the consequences of the AMOC's collapse.
- Sea levels in the Atlantic Ocean will rise by one meter in some areas, submerging many coastal cities.
- In the Amazon, wet and dry seasons will alternate.
- Temperatures around the world will fluctuate unpredictably.
- The southern hemisphere will be warmer. Europe will cool significantly and see less precipitation.
Changes will occur ten times faster than they do now, which will make adaptation almost impossible. One of the study's authors said there is not enough data yet to say whether the collapse will happen next year or in the next century. But if this happens, the changes will be irreversible.
This is very scary. We need to take climate change seriously
– the researcher confirmed.
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