Oceans cover more than two-thirds of the Earth’s surface, with a relatively thin and mostly warm layer of near-surface water above the cooler deep waters. Despite the relatively small depth of the surface mixed layer (due to the high specific heat of water), the sea surface temperature (SST) changes much slower than the air temperature.
The persistence of abnormal ocean conditions over time, known as ocean memory, is an important source for prediction of the climate system. hvg.hu.
However, US experts warn that climate change affecting our planet is making the previously stable properties of the oceans more volatile and unpredictable. The researchers studied the sea surface temperature (SST) in the shallow upper layer of the ocean, the so-called mixed upper oceanic layer (MLD), which extends to a depth of about 50 meters below the water’s surface. The upper layer of water shows a high degree of thermal inertia, especially in comparison with the changes in the atmosphere above.
Predicting the temperature will be more difficult
However, the model the researchers created paints a troubling picture: It has suggested that this kind of memory effect of thermal inertia in the upper ocean layer is declining globally for the rest of the century, and larger fluctuations in temperature can be expected in the future. contracts. The mixing of water in the upper layer of the ocean may be more intense, which actually dilutes it. This can make the upper part of the ocean more sensitive to random changes in temperature.
Ocean amnesia makes it difficult for researchers to obtain a reliable time period for surface temperature predictions, which could save lives in the event of extreme weather events. It is expected that these things will become more common in the future, the experts wrote, if the ocean loses its memory, it will become impossible to predict. science progress in a magazine.
