The most important day of the US primaries, so-called Super Tuesday, takes place on Tuesday, March 5, when voters in the 15 states and American Samoa, part of the United States, go to the polls to determine their candidates. In the November 5 elections. Although nothing really threatens the victories of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, they both still have a lot to worry about.
Technically, the primaries don't end after Super Tuesday, but in most cases, the final candidate is the one who receives the most delegates that day. Because traditionally, on Super Tuesday, decisions are made by the largest number of voters, and during the primaries, California and Texas, which have delegates, a third of the delegates overall.
Super Tuesday is an event of national importance, so presidential candidates' campaigns target the country as a whole more than the voters of a particular state, although the rallies and ads that appear in a particular state may differ by state. To the state.
Meanwhile, this year's Super Tuesday may not have been so one-sided since its first event in 1984.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden has no understandable rival as incumbent president. At the same time, many people in his party are dissatisfied with America's 46th president, while for Republicans, Donald Trump has a huge advantage, and Nikki Haley still has a big advantage. Slim chance of getting the nomination – Meanwhile, on March 3, Washington, Trump was finally defeated for the first time in the D.C. primary, hoping to provide momentum for Super Tuesday.
But this does not mean that there are no unanswered questions for either party:
- Will Biden be able to unite the party behind him?
- While for Trump, that could be a good barometer of what kind of coalition of voters he can put together for the November election.
Will Trump continue to complain, or is Haley finally gaining momentum?
The bigger question is whether Haley's victory in Washington, where she confidently defeated Trump by about 30 percentage points with a score of 62.8 percentage points, can give momentum to her campaign.
Since the primaries are open in most places, meaning anyone can participate, this could improve Haley's results, but her disadvantage is significant at the national and state levels compared to Trump, who has dominated the primaries so far.
Trump leads by an absolute majority in 10 of the 15 states that will vote on Tuesday.
But he is confident in other states, where he leads Haley by at least 23 percentage points, except Alaska, Arkansas and Colorado, where no recent polls have been conducted. In addition to the three mentioned states, Alabama, North Carolina, California, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and Virginia will vote.
In addition, the composition of the states also favors Trump: only three of the 15 states currently voting were considered battleground states in the 2020 presidential election (North Carolina, Minnesota, Texas), but among these states, he defeated Biden in both North Carolina and Texas, while others except a few, are classic Republican states.
So what is important for Trump's campaign team is not the extent of his victory, but the composition of the electorate.
Although an upset can never be ruled out, it is likely that the former president's staff was interested in partial results rather than the final outcome: how they voted in different parts of the states in question, and primarily which Republicans with a college degree and those who live in Garden Voters voted for these two because Trump is in a very bad position compared to Haley, and if he wants to turn things around in November if he's a likely nominee, he's going to have to improve on this in the presidential election.
At the same time, former UN Ambassador Haley does not give up easily: from the end of February until Super Tuesday, several million dollars Spend for ads, while on the last day of the week he visited several states to meet with voters – hoping he could slow down the seemingly unstoppable Trump.
How many disaffected voters will the Democrats have?
On the Democratic side, incumbent President Joe Biden is also expected to win easily, as there are only two others in the race, for whom a total of 7.1 percent of voters have voted so far, so Biden's candidacy is not in great danger.
However, a Democratic president cannot fear his rivals, but rather his voters.
In Michigan's February 27 primary, 13.2% of voters voted for the state's delegates to receive an open mandate at the nominating convention that concludes the primary — that's more than 100,000 Democratic voters in a key battleground state.
Moreover, this type of voting is encouraging Our revolution In other states, the organization is also campaigning to urge voters to pressure Joe Biden by voting for uncommitted delegates, to see if the president will change what they believe is flawed Israeli policy — these protest voters could jeopardize his hopes of a comeback. -Elections in November, if they prefer to stay home during the presidential election.
As early as this month, candidates could be identified
The fate of 1,420 delegates in the Democratic primaries and 854 delegates in the Republican primaries will be decided on this Super Tuesday — if nearly all of the delegates are chosen by Biden on one side and Trump on the other, they could mathematically secure their nomination as soon as possible. Also this month.
This would require Biden to win 1,968 of the 3,934 delegates, but lose only two of the 451 delegates currently allocated.
In the Republican Party, a total of 2,429 delegates will vote at the nominating convention that concludes the primary, and 1,215 delegates are needed to obtain the nomination. Trump currently leads by 244 votes, while Haley has just 43 – apart from them, the second leg of the primary race, Ron DeSantis, who dropped out after New Hampshire, has 9, and Vivek Ramaswamy, who suspended his campaign after Iowa. He has 3.
Donald Trump will meet Viktor Orbán after Super Tuesday
At the end of February, it was revealed that Viktor Orbán would be traveling to the United States, where he would also hold a meeting with Donald Trump. The Prime Minister will hold a panel discussion with Kevin Roberts on March 7 in Washington Under the title “The Future of Relations between the United States and Hungary,” he will then meet on Friday, March 8, with Trump in Florida.
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