A nationally representative poll of 22,000 voters conducted by polling company Survation on behalf of the political campaign organization Best for Britain found that Based on the party's current preferences, the Labor Party – the largest opposition force – could obtain 456 seats in the 650-seat House of Representatives, thus obtaining a majority of 262 seats compared to the expected number of all other factions combined.
This also means that A Sir Keir Starmer's Labor Party will get 70% of the seats in the House of Commons, with other factions sharing the remaining 30%.
After winning the 1997 elections under the leadership of Tony Blair, the Labor Party was able to form a government with a faction of 418 members and a majority in the House of Representatives of 179 members.
The Labor faction in the House of Commons had 202 members in the previously dissolved parliament after the election was called.
According to a poll published by Surveillance newspaper on Saturday At the same time, the number of members of the Conservative Party faction that has been in power since 2010 will decrease from the 348 it won in the previous election in 2019 to 72, This means that not half of the 156 representative mandates were won in the 1906 parliamentary elections, the worst electoral result in the history of the Conservative Party.
The MRP survey model used by Survation covers many times more voters than traditional voter sampling, takes into account more than a hundred criteria, and weights the result by the demographic makeup of each electoral district, as well as changes in voters' party preferences over a long period of time.
For months, surveys conducted using traditional methodology have consistently indicated that Labor has a support advantage over the Conservatives of more than 20 percentage points.
Cover image source: MTI Photo/Jonathan Hordle
