By Sutik BiswasIndia Correspondent
Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is poised to win three of India’s four key state elections ahead of crucial general elections next year.
The Bharatiya Janata Party enjoys a strong lead in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress Party leads comfortably in the southern state of Telangana.
More than 160 million people, or one-sixth of India’s electorate, were eligible to vote in the November election. The counting of votes in Mizoram’s fifth state is scheduled for Monday.
Were these elections a real test of Modi’s prospects of securing a historic third term in the upcoming general elections next year? In simpler terms, would a stronger performance by the Congress have signaled a potential setback for the BJP?
not exactly. In 2018, the Congress won three key state elections: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Three months later, the BJP swept the national general elections And In all three states. State elections in India are conducted around specific concerns at the state or district level, while general elections revolve around issues at the national level.
Despite this dynamic, Sunday’s results come as a major boost for Modi, who already has his sights set on a record third term next year.
The win is also important because the BJP has often failed in state elections. To date, the party – which enjoys a comfortable majority in Parliament – has governed 15 of India’s 28 states – only nine of them directly. The rest were in coalition with smaller partners.
Regaining control of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress and retaining Madhya Pradesh for a record fifth term means the BJP appears virtually invincible in the “Indian heartland” of north and central India. Ten states in this Hindi-speaking belt send 225 MPs to Parliament – and the BJP won 177 seats in 2019.
On the other hand, the elections were more important for Congress.
The improved performance would have come as a huge morale boost and positioned the party as the natural leader of an emerging alliance of 28 opposition parties, collectively known as India. At one point, the party appeared to be leading the race to win Madhya Pradesh, but then lost momentum as the BJP took the lead. The party has struggled to convert state victories into national election success in the past, and now it is failing to retain state governments as well. Anti-incumbency is tougher in Congress.
But there is one silver lining. The Congress was able to wrest the southern state of Telangana, where the regional BRS suffered from anti-incumbency. After its landslide victory in Karnataka state last May, it is continuing its foray into southern India.
So, what factors shaped voting behavior in recent opinion polls? Beyond the governance record, and considerations such as caste, identity, and the appeal of the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, welfare promises also appear to influence voting patterns.
Modi announced during his election campaign that the plan to provide 5 kilograms of free grains per month to 800 million of India’s poorest people would continue over the next five years. He is also credited with returning his party in Madhya Pradesh to a program offering a monthly stipend of Rs 1,250. [$16; £12] For eligible women from poor families – Women make up about 47% of the state’s 50 million voters.
Such cross-party welfare has been described by many commentators as competitive populism, but in reality it has also highlighted the vulnerable lives of millions of Indians who depend on state aid for a decent living.
nationally A poll conducted by India Today magazineAn August poll showed that Modi’s popularity remained intact after a decade in power: more than half of respondents felt he should continue to lead India.
Adding to the BJP’s formidable arsenal are its vast resources, a massive 24/7 party organization, governance based on a strong social welfare structure, and a largely supportive media. Not surprisingly, Modi and his party appear to be in pole position to win a stunning third term next year.
BBC News India now on YouTube. click here To subscribe and watch our documentary, explanatory and featured films.
Read more India stories from the BBC:
