Who wouldn’t want to know when and what kind of weather to expect, especially in the summer months?! Meteorologists always draw attention to the fact that it is only possible to say with certainty what kind of weather is expected a few days in advance.
We are only in the fifth month this year, but the weather has not been normal so far. Winter is over, it was much warmer in January than in March, when we were already waiting for spring, which turned out to be quite changeable in April too. And in May, we hoped that even the beaches would open soon, but that remained only a dream. The apartments are cold, and in many family homes – where possible – they are heated during the day.
Then everyone wonders when the right time will come?
The unanimous opinion of the official meteorological portals is that this summer’s weather will be dominated by El Niño again this year after more than two years of La Niña. During La Niña (little girl in Hungary), the global sea surface temperature is below average. This period in our country is characterized by a dry summer and very cold weather in the second half of winter. In El Niño (i.e. young boy) years, this reverses, the global sea surface is several degrees warmer than average, and this brings unusually mild winters, rainy springs and warmer-than-average years in Hungary.
According to the April situation report from the Climate Prediction Center of the United States of America, neutral conditions prevail in the world’s weather at the moment. They also predicted that the El Niño phenomenon would intensify this summer. The beginning of this phenomenon is laid in May-June.
There is also a local method that can be used to deduce what lies ahead this year, Lucca’s calendar, which is based on folk observation.
From December 13 (Luke’s name day) to December 24, that is, until Christmas Eve, we have to monitor weather events. Each day, we write what kind of weather we had that day (for example, dry, rainy, fair, frosty, sunny). The day of Lucca, that is, the first day of the Lucca calendar, shows the weather in January, the day after that shows the weather in February, and so on. Accordingly, the weather in each month will be like the weather on the corresponding day out of the twelve observed days. We can basically infer the amount of precipitation from what we experienced. Based on Luca’s calendar for 2021, for example, we’ve deduced a very dry year, which unfortunately turns out to be the case, as severe drought afflicted the lands for most of 2022.
According to 2022, precipitation will arrive in the spring months – and it has – while the summer months will also be dry according to the calendar this year, which will also be followed by a dry autumn and a very mild and rainy December. Which means Christmas won’t be white this year either.
According to the predictions of the Luca calendar, spring is already cooler than last year, it will be followed by a hot June, a cooler and changeable July, and a hot August is expected again for a few days.
There have always been harsh summers
We often refer to climate change, and as it gets colder month after month, many people start to suspect it. However, global warming does not occur evenly, with some regions warming faster than others. A good example is Australia, where it is currently 1.4 degrees warmer than it was at the beginning of the 20th century. The area of the continent affected by wildfires is increasing every year due to drought caused by climate change.
d said Giza Foros, agricultural engineer. For example, in July 2000, temperatures around 40 degrees were measured continuously for two weeks, in 2007 there were sixteen hot days in June, twenty-one in July, eighteen in August, and this year – on July 15 – The hottest so far measured in the province (in the shade, in official meter) 42.5 degrees. Last year, just like 2011, was a summer of extremes, with twelve hot days in July, eighteen in August, and eleven in September, but in the meantime there were great colds and great storms.
