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Unlike other recent polls, the CES poll found Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are already linked to men (49%-48%), While the Democratic candidate leads among female voters by 53% versus 45%.
According to the poll, compared to other polls, Harris is better among white voters,
Trump can only win this group by a relatively small margin, 51% to 47%. 77% of black voters would vote for Harris and 21% for Trump; While among Latinos, 58% support the Democrat and 40% support the Republican, which is mostly in line with the poll average.
Among white graduates, the vice president leads 57% to 40%, but among whites without higher education, the tide turns in Trump's favor. Among all graduates, the balance of power is 59%-38% in favor of Harris, while among all non-graduates, the Republican also wins, albeit by a smaller percentage than among white graduates (46%-51%).
Among independents, Donald Trump leads by three percentage points (45%-48%).
Moreover, about 3% of potential voters remain undecided.
A CES One of the largest electoral polls, in which a total of 48,732 registered voters participated. The poll was conducted by YouGov from October 1-25.
RealClearPolling (RCP) is available nationwide On average
Since October 6, Donald Trump has taken the lead, albeit by a small margin.
His advantage is currently 0.2 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. The FiveThirtyEight aggregator remains Kamala Harris He appears In the lead at the national levelA difference of 1.4 points.
Revolutionary Communist Party according to
In the states that decided the election results, Trump is better off,
In all the swing states he wins, but not with great confidence, by a maximum of 2.3 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin also attest that the race for the White House remains fierce.
| Difference in vote share between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in swing states based on different groups | |||
| Real Clear Bowling (RCP) | Thirty-five eight | Silver Bulletin | |
| Arizona | Trump +1.5 | Trump +1.9 | Trump +2 |
| North Carolina | Trump +0.8 | Trump +1,3 | Trump +1,3 |
| Georgia | Trump +2,3 | Trump +1.6 | Trump +1,4 |
| Michigan | Trump +0,1 | Harris +0,5 | Harris +0,5 |
| Nevada | Trump +0.7 | Trump +0,2 | tie |
| Pennsylvania | Trump +0.5 | Trump +0,3 | Trump +0.5 |
| wisconsin | Trump +0,3 | tie | Harris +0,4 |
The “Blue Point” is located in the middle of the “Red Sea”.
New York Times yesterday I reported Survey of Nebraska, according to him
Kamala Harris leads by 12 percentage points in the state's 2nd Congressional District (54%-42%).
If the poll is not wrong, Harris could significantly improve Joe Biden's performance in 2020who won by 6 percentage points in the Prairie State's 2nd District.
All of this is important because, although generally considered a Republican stronghold (Trump received 58% of the vote in 2020), Nebraska is one of the few US states that does not distribute its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. (The other is northeastern Maine.) In these, two electors are awarded to the candidate who receives the majority of votes in the state as a whole, and the remainder of the votes are allocated to the winner of each congressional district (of which there are two in Maine and three in Nebraska).
Eight years ago, Trump won in and around Omaha, which includes the 2nd Congressional District, but in 2020, Biden reversed his results and took one of their electoral votes. In the event of a tie, the voter whom Democrats call the “blue dot” could be decisive: For example, if Harris wins only the three Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,
It could even depend on one vote from Nebraska, whether there is a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, or whether Harris reaches the White House with a majority of 270 electors.
In the event of a tie, state delegations in the newly elected House of Representatives would vote on the next president (each delegation would have one vote), which would tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump.
Governor of Minnesota, born in Nebraska, Tim Waltz The Democratic vice presidential candidate also held two campaign rallies detained Omaha area.
The cover image is an illustration. Cover image source: Getty Images
