Former President Donald Trump for campaign finance violations chargedcovers a payment to purchase the silence of an ex-lover during the 2016 presidential election. While this is not the only legal charge against Trump, it is a political earthquake some twenty months before the 2024 election.
Different rules apply to influential people
Unconfirmed reports say more than charged with thirty felonies Trump in Manhattan. Although the full set of charges won’t be announced until next week, according to some reports, the former president could face up to four years in prison.
Trump has access to a wide range of legal support and he strongly disputes the allegations. The rich and powerful Americans have many opportunities to drag out legal proceedings for years. It seems unlikely that President Trump will find himself behind bars before the 2024 election — in fact, not even a conviction.
We must not forget that President Trump at least with three other major investigations We must also face it. One of them is the fraud annulment of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia his bestThe other relates to the possession of confidential documents, and the third relates to deceptive and fraudulent business practices. H None of the charges It could move faster than the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
Will Trump’s impeachment help?
Some commentators believe that Trump would benefit politically from impeachment, arguing that Trump supporters would as an attack on them They explain. Political science does not support this belief, as most politicians do He gets in trouble with the legal systemusually suffers from a connection to crime.
But to defeat incumbent President Biden in 2024, Trump will need to broaden his voter base — just making that base more tense won’t necessarily help him. There is no indication that impeachment will convince undecided voters to side with Trump or convert Biden supporters to his side.
Indeed, this allegation can only increase the climate of criminality that has surrounded Trump for most of his career, first as a real estate financier, then as a TV star, and finally as president. There is no doubt: that many Americans who finds it so repulsive Trump, who would never consider voting for him as president, seems happy to be impeached.
Republican considerations
The more interesting question is whether other candidates in the Republican field can benefit from Trump’s legal troubles. Most other candidates – and potential candidates already announced, that he supports Trump and has been highly critical of the Manhattan attorney’s behavior. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis went further I offered asylum to Trump – which is a good political move, even if it has a very weak legal basis.
Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, who is also said to be aspiring to the presidency, is also vocal about the scandal. He told CNN the accusations only serve to further divide the country. Like DeSantis, Pence faces the dilemma of distinguishing himself from Trump while not alienating the Republican base that still supports Trump.
Doubts among Democrats as well
On the other hand, not only joy prevails. The Washington Post is usually pro-democracy Editorial article They expressed concern that of all the legal cases pending against Trump, this little one has now been set for indictments, which are still pending. on a shaky legal basis. The influential newspaper notes that this is an important signal that even former presidents are not above the law, but in this case, Trump supporters could easily accuse the judiciary of political motives.
The Biden administration hopes from this situation that Trump will be legally and politically mortally wounded, unable to run for the 2024 election, and unable to assume the office of president.
In the end, it is possible that President Trump will win his legal case. like As the Wall Street Journal suggests There appear to be a number of valid defenses to the charges which may be brought. Trump is likely to benefit politically from such a victory, though he would still be at risk in other cases, and his political opponents are unlikely to consider him “clean” in the legal sense of the word.
Is revenge coming soon?
There could be other long-term consequences of Trump’s impeachment. While most of the legal claims against the Clinton and Biden families are viewed as bogus and politically motivated, it is certainly possible that Whig district attorney They are using Trump’s impeachment as a pretext to take legal action against the Democratic officials. But however unpleasant the consequences, Trump must be prosecuted for any crime a grand jury finds sufficient evidence to indict him.
Short term gain for Trump, but long term damage
The Wall Street Journal Its strategists are already guessingWhat does the indictment mean for the election? They are opening Pandora’s Box, which has unforeseen consequences for Democrats, they wrote. As a result, everything will revolve around Trump in the coming months. Pressure will mount on Republicans to close ranks. According to the leading newspaper, DeSantis is already being asked to make room for the only candidate, Trump.
In short, the entire circus will lead to the likely end of Trump’s re-election by the Republicans to counter the incumbent president. The indictment makes him more popular with his own party, but not among ordinary Americans. So you may win the primaries but lose the election.
(Author page for Csaba Káncz Available here.)
