It will be very difficult, but not impossible, European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans, a member of REPoweEU, said on Tuesday. New initiativeWhich has several specific points summarizewho – which How to activate two-thirds of Russian gas imports by the end of 2022. The EU covers 90% of its gas needs from imports, about 40% of which is of Russian origin, up from 155 billion cubic meters last year. The commission’s latest plan shows that the various steps could save 101.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas imports by the end of 2022, two-thirds of total Russian imports last year.
That sounds pretty cool in the current geopolitical situation, but it’s actually quite a bit farfetched, with a strong upward approximation, and optimistic estimates appearing, at least on paper.
The Commission Official material The table below shows the new measures the EU must take to bring together 101.5 billion cubic meters, in addition to the Fit for 55 package for 2030, which has already been outlined.
As shown in the table above: The biggest component of the breakup from Russian gas, 50 billion cubic meters, will be the boost to LNG imports by the end of 2022. In January and February of this year, the European Union imported a record 10 billion cubic meters of LNG from non-Russian sources, but on the other hand it was important to see that in the previous winter months the total EU imports of LNG, so It is only a modest increase of a few billion cubic meters per month with higher prices and transportation costs. On the other hand, with this turnover, Americans, Qataris, and Norwegians (these three major suppliers of LNG) have all reached the upper limits of transportation performance. In a year or two, they simply won’t be able to get more LNG to Europe because more investment is needed. We have already written about the serious difficulties of replacing Russian gas in our previous analyzes:
Not only is the ability to send LNG scarce, but the receiver as well, Thus, for example, despite the fact that Spanish ports will be flooded with more LNG, the transport capacity of the French, that is, within the continent, is very limited, so there is a need for intervention, which is quite time-consuming. The same is true of Greek ports, where more LNG can only flow inland from time to time. The solution might be to pump more LNG into British ports, or for the Germans, but more improvements are needed in these areas as well (the Germans have also started building a new LNG terminal). The committee all point to the need for this in its proposal, which it promised to give priority and is ready to agree to a rapid reset of development programs in member states.
The second major component of the separation from Russian gas is the increase in gas transportation through pipelines, according to the above table. The circular capacity of 10 billion cubic meters is generally quite good, but you need to know that It is a long-running “pipeline” project (Baltic Sea Pipeline), not a new project And just the other day, the Norwegian and Polish prime ministers agreed that the earliest possible date for delivery could be from October to November this year. In English: only then will the transport on it begin, and since its annual capacity is 10 billion cubic meters, in reality it will only be able to meet the beautiful round figure entered into the table by the end of next year, and not by the end of the year. from this year.
As far as we know, the transmission capacity of other pipelines will not be able to boost the EU until the end of this year, because the pipeline volume from Algeria, for example, is already spinning at maximum capacity.
According to the table, one of the very important elements in reducing the demand for Russian gas is the acceleration of renewable energies, that is, solar and wind energy projects. In such a crisis situation, of course, the direction can be achieved which is certainly important, only the process of planning, permitting and implementing large power plants takes a long time. Thus, it is doubtful whether the projects can now be accelerated so that by the end of the year they can show 20% more production capacity (which can already replace Russian gas with additional energy production from next year). The possibility/ability to significantly boost residential solar and heat pump projects across Europe is also questionable, especially as the explosion in energy prices will increase demand for such capacities worldwide, which will largely be hampered by Chinese production and shipping capabilities. , not to mention the prices.
The obvious idea is to reduce the heating of all buildings across Europe by one degree and save 14 billion cubic meters of Russian gas on paper, but the reality is more complicated.
On the other hand, the current heating season is almost over, so the savings potential is already limited (in the summer cooling season of course), and there is no meaningful campaigning for this major social and economic initiative, so it’s time to start explaining it at all. Effect.
Overall, the Commission’s package of proposals is of course useful and will certainly provide important guidance for country leaders to work in more detail, but the package feels that the numbers in the table due to Russian aggression have been largely driven by Russian gas. Savings by the end of this year. In this matter.
Of course the efforts will certainly start and there is no other way for the member states, so if all the proposed steps are implemented, by 2027-2030 we may be able to get rid of 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in gas consumption in the UAE. That year, that is, as much as we imported from the Russians last year in total. As it shows The Great Russian Secession is a long and serious process, but it must be moved forward.
Cover image source: Dario Benatelli, EU, European Council media outlet from the 10-11 March 2022 Informal EU Summit from Versailles Castle.
