Published by another, midterm Prognosis The Ministry of Finance is headed by Mihaly Varga. The document, which must be published by the end of the year, was uploaded to the ministry's website on the evening of December 30. It is not unlikely that the government's goal is to get as little publicity as possible for the document, because it contains rather sad data about the performance of the economy in 2023 and the state of public finances.
the HVG And the file According to his summary, the most important data are the following:
- Hungary's GDP fell by 0.4 percent in 2023
- The general budget deficit as a percentage of GDP reached 5.9%, which not only exceeded the original plan of 3.9%, but also exceeded last fall’s estimate of 5.2%.
- The annual value of inflation was 17.6 percent
- Total wages rose 14.5 percent
- From the last two figures, it can be calculated that the net real wage per capita decreased by 3.3 percent
- Household consumption fell by 2 percent
- Imports decreased by 4.8%, while the value of exports increased by 0.4%.
We can point to the following elements as reasons for the large deficit in the general budget:
- Companies paid HUF 320 billion less in taxes than planned
- Revenues from consumption-related taxes (mainly VAT) were lower at 1,137 billion HUF and, despite higher inflation, exceeded last year's figure by only 300 billion HUF (9,050 billion after 8,718).
- Household payments also turned out to be 120 billion less than expected
- 400 billion forints less than planned were received from the EU
Incidentally, the document paints a much better picture for next year, i.e. 2024: in addition to 3.6% GDP growth, a 2.9% budget deficit is expected – although this last figure cannot be higher than the projected 3%. By 2020. European Union.
Regarding long-term prospects, the government expects a real wage increase of 4.7 percent for the coming years, and the ministry estimates inflation at 5.2 percent next year, and about 3 percent from 2025.
