In recent days, it has received great international attention and discussions that the Trump administration has targeted the United States Development Agency, the United States Agency for International Development. Donald Trump will cancel the agency since 1961, on the pretext that it can provide large sums to the United States. Thousands of agency employees are to be released, leaving only less than 300 employees from the current number, and melting them in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Meanwhile, the president ordered most US foreign aid to freeze. Trump's plan has caused great controversy and could have a serious impact on global development and humanitarian efforts.
Indeed, the US Agency for International Development also runs external assistance and humanitarian assistance all over the world. The agency is active in more than 100 countries and leads in areas such as food aid, disaster management, infrastructure development, health care and government reforms. Usas uses include democracy support and human rights support all over the world. The agency receives support from the US government budget, but also cooperates with international organizations, NGOs and private companies.
Although the primary goal of the United States Agency for International Development is aid and development, it also works as a tool for foreign policy in the United States, which is why some countries are considered an influence tool. The scandal is now the fact that thousands of journalists and hundreds of media have been funded all over the world on a political basis. We have informed many articles on the Echo of the Hungarian government, criticizing the Hungarian government (the investigation has already begun in the Sovereignty Office). A federal judge has temporarily prevented Trump's attempt to send thousands of employees to the United States Agency for International Development.
In the newsletter a Politico It drew attention to the fact that the elimination of the US Agency for International Development will give China the opportunity to increase its impact on international development and make the United States a competitive defect. The newspaper wrote that China is going by quickly to fill the area left by the United States Agency for International Development from India and the Pacific to South America.
Watch China, weigh and adapt quickly
According to senior research colleagues at the Eurasia Center, China could be the US Agency for International Development, and seeks to reach vital resources abroad and try to build alliances that are not in the interest of the United States.
During Donald Trump's first referee, the US Agency for International Development was reduced and its priorities were restructured. Trump also considered (and still considered) China as oneBelt and Road Initiative – The area and the road) Against her initiative. During its first presidency, the United States led a lot of money to countries in Southeast Asia and Africa to suppress China's influence.
Peter Clemences believes that China is now very into account, given what can be expected during Trump's second presidency, and as part of this, it responds to the US Agency for International Development's decision as it requires its interests.
According to the analysis of the Council of Foreign Relations, Bangladesh may be the first country ready to circumvent China for further assistance in the absence of the United States. China has already supported many projects as part of the BRI initiative in Bangladesh and sympathy for the interim government. In addition, in the case of Bangladesh, it is not inconsistent that China is striving to establish a good relationship with the new Bangladesh leadership – while India has cooperated with the former Sikh Hasina government – and reducing Indian influence in the country. I consider similar operations in other countries of South Asia as well as in Southeast Asia
Explanation of an old research colleague at the Eurasia Center.
BRI is the global economy development and infrastructure project that China launched in 2013. Its goal is to revive the historic silk road to modernize the strongest economic relations with Europe, Africa and other Asian countries, especially through infrastructure developments (such as railways, ports, roads and energy projects). In 2015, Hungary was the first member of the European Union to formally join BRI.
As we wrote at the beginning of this article, the US Agency for International Development also provided health, educational and humanitarian assistance, while BRI is mainly focused on infrastructure investments. Péter Klementsits pointed out that although most BRI is the focus of infrastructure developments, the Chinese initiative has other aspects.
The strengthening of cultural relations is an integral part of BRI, which is an excellent promotion of educational cooperation. The goal of the digital silk road is to improve international communications communication and enhance fast IT companies in China. It is also worth talking about healthy silk. The latter supports the enhancement of cooperation between nations and the exchange of knowledge, allowing the prevention of public health and epidemics programs. The purpose of the initiative is not only improving healing care and access to medicines, but also to enhance sustainable development and health infrastructure. The project seeks to integrate alternative medical methods and modern medicine to treat global health crises more effectively, such as global epidemics. The most important goals include increasing awareness of public health, supporting research and development activities, and preventing the epidemic
Explanation of a great research colleague at the Eurasia Center.
In general, China may be able to fill in the absence of a local procession for the agency, and Japanese aid programs, South Korea and Western Europe are likely to be able to replace some of the American Agency for International Development in the poorest parts of the world.
China's soft power may be strengthened
In the event that China is replaced by the United States in the field of aid in developing countries, the political influence on these countries may be great. The shift towards Beijing would reduce the influence of the United States, which, according to Peter Clemences, will lead to more and more dependence on countries for Chinese investments and loans, which are often subject to lower conditions (there are no demands in governance and human rights).
Since countries are closely adapted to Chinese interests, their foreign policy can reflect Beijing's priorities, which can limit China's criticism. Moreover, these countries can adopt government models that reflect the state -controlled growth approach in China. In addition, China can be easily expanded through BRI, the commitment of developing countries in China, which may lead to major geopolitical transformations. Countries may find themselves more likely to support China's international agenda, which can change traditional alliances and affect regional stability. In general, this transition can reshape the government dynamics, enhance the soft power of China, and rearrange the political environment of developing countries, and is closely adapted to the interests of China
– An oldest research colleague at the Eurasia Center said.
There are risks, another world can come
While the US International Development Agency often provides non -recovered aid, BRi often depends on loans. “What risks do you mean in terms of debt?” – We asked the expert, who admitted that the BRI financing approach also carried the possibility of increased debt levels. The countries concerned may prefer to pay the loans over the basic local spending, which hinders economic development and reduces social stability.
There may be a problem that Bri loans often finance projects that do not necessarily achieve an immediate economic return, which increases the risk of financial tension and relying on more borrowing. Of course, China should not forget that the debt of the countries concerned is not in the interest of the affected countries, so using previous experience and maintaining the interests of winning against Western warnings, it is not expected to have serious negative consequences on the borrowing itself, while a lot depends on the responsible economic policy To lead a specific country
– Peter Clements confirmed.
It is also believed that some countries can apply a mixed strategy, that is, the US Agency for International Development (if they remain or operate in some way) and BRI power points while dealing with the risks that come with them.
The expert added: “It is clear that this also depends on how the relevant nations of the Trump government's policy, the long -term international role of the United States, and the potential development of the conflict between the United States and China, and of course the new world order.”
If the BRI really replaces the US Agency for International Development, the standards of international development may change, which may lead to a transaction auxiliary model.
Péter Klementsits believes that this can lead to the reinstating global federations, as countries turn into China and form possible new blocks, reduce Western influence and existing institutions such as. World Bank.
“In the end, if BRI is able to control the global development discourse, its consequences will include the strengthening of the global multi -polar system determined by various development models. It will also have a major impact on international cooperation in managing across national challenges. The first research colleague at the Eurasia Center said in Eurasia Center, these changes would transform global commitment and redefine the dynamics of international power. “
(Cover: Chinese President Xi Chen Ping and US President Donald Trump on November 9, 2017 in Beijing.
