In light of research published in the second half of February, Donald Trump's national lead over incumbent President Joe Biden appears to be decreasing compared to January numbers: RealClearPolitics Summary according to
Trump gets 46.1 percent, compared to 44.2 percent for Biden.
The current narrow gap of 2 percent is relatively good news for Biden, as at the end of January he was separated from his rival by four percentage points based on the total of polls, but he still suffers from a large gap.
However, the result of the US presidential election It is determined not by the national vote share, but by the majority in each member state, even if it is based on tenths of a percentage. Each member state has an electorate that reflects its population, and a presidential candidate must collect at least 270 votes at the ballot box to begin moving into the Oval Office in November. (The 538-person Electoral College currently favors Republicans, while negatively influencing Democrats: In both 2000 and 2016, they lost the presidential election by receiving more votes than Republicans nationally.)
Every presidential election is for this reason A pair of swing states, or so-called battleground states, that almost exclusively decide which party's candidate will emerge as the winner in the end.. For this reason, the balance of power here is particularly important,
At the present time, the flag is in Trump’s hands, and he is advancing confidently even in the states that Biden is still winning in 2020, by quite a few.
Nevada
The southwestern state has a Spanish-speaking population of nearly a third Since Obama's victory in 2008, without interruption, Democratic presidential candidates have come out on topIn 2020, Biden also won by 50.1 percent. However, research commissioned by The Hill/Emerson was published this week predicts thisthat it was possible for a major transformation to occur in a democratic state, as evidenced by recent years: 46% of voters prefer Trumpwhile
The current president will receive 10 percentage points less, or 40 percent of the votes, compared to his result four years ago.
Michigan
In the central state of the Rust Belt in the Midwest, which was one of the strongholds of the Democratic “blue wall,” Trump was able in 2016 to defeat Hillary Clinton. The loss of white, working-class voters cost the former Secretary of State's presidential ambitions. But in 2020, Biden triumphed over the “blue wall” that soared above the limit he dreamed of, which was 270 electoral votes.. Latest research according to On the other hand, Biden's victory in Michigan could have been a Pentecostal kingdom:
Because the Democratic president's support has dropped by about 10 percentage points, Trump will now win 46% to 40% over Biden.
Georgia
In recent decades, Bill Clinton only managed to carry the almost certain Republican state in 1992, and after Trump won in 2016, a Democrat miraculously managed to win it again in 2020 (by a margin of 0.23 percent). But after the victory of the previous session, Biden's popularity faltered: according to the latest data Instead of the result of 49.47 percent at the time, Biden will receive only 42 percent today, while Trump will regain the southeastern “sunny region” state with 48 percent..
Pennsylvania
The state is home to Joe Biden, and it is also the eastern wing of the “Blue Wall.” In 2016, he also supported Trump, and four years later, Biden. But the Democratic president has to work for the 19 voters represented by the new success, because in our day Instead of 50, only 43% will vote for him, while Trump will regain the state whose center is located in Philadelphia by 45%..
Arizona
With the exception of Democrat Bill Clinton's victory in 1996, the southwestern border state was also considered a Republican stronghold. In 2020, Biden turned things around, beating Trump by 0.3 percentage points. Research according to This goes back to February 2024:
Because of Biden's 6 percent fall, the 11th electoral vote in the Grand Canyon State will be for Trump.
North Carolina
In 2020, Donald Trump's victory in North Carolina was not long ago, but he managed to beat Joe Biden by more than one percent.. The last time Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama won the state, which is mainly loyal to Republicans, was in 2008. However, in 2024, the presumptive GOP nominee may not have to worry as much as he did last time: Surveys In women Trump will beat Biden by 46-43 percentwhose popularity may have declined significantly here as well.
wisconsin
Located in the rust belt of the Midwest Wisconsin may be the biggest issue in this year's election: In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won by 0.7 percentage points, but polls… They offerWhich
Currently the score is practically tied (49%-49%).
Analyse according to There is a possibility that Wisconsin will be the state that decides the election, so we should pay special attention to developments there.
Looking at the numbers, Biden can't be happy with his performance so far in these key battlegrounds: If he wants to win in 2024, without the Midwestern states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) he has practically no chance.. Because if he doesn't get any of these, it's not enough for him to win Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, he must also take North Carolina, which was besieged in vain in 2020, or Florida, which has become increasingly Republican, in 2020. Reach 270 electoral votes.
Although Biden was able to flip the states of Arizona and Georgia in addition to the “blue wall” in the Rust Belt last time, This year, it looks like the Midwest could be a big challenge, not to mention Arizona and Georgia. that it
Even in Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016, her support has dropped dramatically, which does not bode well.
Unless you change your campaign strategy as soon as possible. In any case, the only thing that might give Democrats hope is that the midterm elections that have taken place over the past few months have so far exceeded expectations (and research). They fulfilled it Their candidates.
Cover photo: A Trump supporter holds up “Shut Down Biden” signs outside a campaign rally for former US President Donald Trump in the town of Waterford, Michigan, US, on February 17, 2024. Cover photo credit: Nick Antaya/Bloomberg via Getty Images
