It is not possible to predict with absolute certainty who will win the November presidential election in the United States from opinion polls and articles comparing odds published almost daily. But the trends are clear: it is clear, for example, that it has been beneficial to the Democratic Party Joe Biden Opt out, because it's better until then Donald Trump The slope flattened toward him and perhaps made the race closer to ABC News There has been no precedent since 1876.
If the results of the decisive states were as they were on September 24 (four Democratic victories and four Republican victories), then Written by Kamala Harris The victory will be sufficient if he obtains only two electoral votes more than Trump (we wrote about the American electoral system and the counting of electoral votes in this article). Such a small difference was 148 years ago when Rutherford B. Heist Supported by only one voter Samuel J. Tildent.
At the same time, the ABC article draws attention to the fact that it cannot be ruled out that one of the candidates will win by a landslide. The reason for this is precisely the very close competition, because even a small error during the preparation of public opinion polls or a slight shift in society can be enough to change the final result dramatically, because in most states the candidate who receives the largest number of votes wins. With all election votes.
In such a tense situation, battleground countries receive more attention than before. At the end of the presidential election campaign, the group of swing states had shrunk to seven states:
- arizona,
- north carolina,
- georgia,
- michigan,
- nevada,
- Pennsylvania
- It's Wisconsin
According to some experts, his commitment to the Republican Party in the states of Texas and Florida is also beginning to fade, but a Harris victory in these two cities would be a big surprise.
The table below shows the results of the 2020 presidential elections in these seven states:
It can be seen that only 10,000 votes were cast in Arizona, which has a much smaller population than Hungary, but only 13,000 votes were cast in Georgia, which is slightly more populous, which is not such a big difference that it could be said that if the majority of voters in Arizonans supported Biden in 2020, then in 2024 they won't accept Trump.
Redfield and Wilton strategies Public opinion poll In Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris and Trump each received 47 percent, while in Nevada both candidates received 45-45 percent. New York Times I collected several measurementsAccordingly, Trump leads in three of the crucial states (Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia), and Harris leads in the other four states, but the difference in each case is 1-2 points.
If we count the swing states based on The New York Times' aggregate measure and use the 2020 results for all other states, Harris would win the election by just over 270 electoral votes. If he loses Pennsylvania but wins Georgia instead, then The analysis page account is called 538 According to him, he wins too. But if Trump wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. It does not matter if Harris wins the other four states. Because of the difference in electoral votes in each state, Trump can return to the White House.
Which candidate ultimately wins in which state also depends on who blacks, young people, and women vote for, as well as how many voters are mobilized due to the state of the economy or changes in abortion laws.
