Although US pollsters publish new research results almost every day – and therefore crunching the numbers seems less exciting – the day before we wrote our article, a noticeable change occurred: Kamala Harris-Team Walz until He took the lead for the first time since the summer Donald Trump and J.D. Vance By the joint research of the New York Times and Siena (49-46 percent). Although the Democratic presidential candidate was already leading in other polls, the daily newspaper always indicated the former president in first place in its measurements.
For optimistic Democrats, this could mean that Harris, if only by a point or two, has consolidated his position in the leadership position, making him more likely to win the presidential election, which is scheduled to be held in less than a month. At the same time, Republicans can also hope that, given the result is within the margin of error, the final outcome of the vote will be the opposite.
Red, blue or purple?
As we wrote previously, due to the close competition, much emphasis is placed on the so-called battleground or swing states, among which Arizona will be one of the most interesting locations.
Located in the southwestern part of the United States, Arizona is three times larger than Hungary with a population of just over 7 million, and was considered a red state, that is, a strong Republican stronghold, from the 1950s onward. There were only two elections: 1996, when the Democratic Party won Bill Clinton He ran again for his second presidential term, in 2020, when Donald Trump, who had won four years earlier, was unable to be defeated. Joe bidentAlthough it increased the number of supporters.
The figure below clearly shows that until 2016 the difference between the support of the two major parties was about the same, then they quickly started to get closer to each other, and then in 2020 the Democrats took the lead. This, like other swing states, is mostly A Demographic changes Because: The share of white voters without higher education has declined, while the share of Asian Americans, Latinos, and whites with a degree has increased, which favors the blue Democratic Party. (In almost all states of the USA, registration is required in order to vote, so it is necessary to mobilize not only those registered but also potential voters.)
We need an unproblematic filter
Nearly 4.5 million people live in Maricopa County, which also includes the statehouse, Phoenix, so it's not only the second-largest congressional district in the United States, but it's also home to about 62 percent of Arizona's total population, which is also crucial to the outcome Elections. In 1996, he was the Republican presidential nominee Bob Doll Son He received 49 percent of the nearly 753,000 votes cast in Maricopa at the time, beating Clinton, but in 2020, Biden needed more than a million votes to win the district by 50 percent and a margin of just 45,000 votes.
If the measurements are accurate, a landslide victory would be expected not only for the presidential candidates, but also for the parties as a whole, because voting patterns are also interesting. A New Yorker from Arizona In his report For example, a voter who crosses the line in favor of Donald Trump will speak, but will vote for the latter of the Republican and Democratic candidates competing for one of the Senate seats.
One of Trump's biggest supporters, Lake Carey He wanted to be governor in 2020, but lost the election, and since then he has been pointing out fraud without any basis, but he is not as popular as Trump. In fact, he is a few points behind the other candidate, the Democrat. Ruben Gallego behind. The latter served as a Marine in Afghanistan before his political career, and as the son of Colombian and Mexican parents, he may be particularly sympathetic to Hispanic voters. A professor at the University of Arizona told The New Yorker that in a study he conducted, those who said they would vote for Trump and Gallego said they would vote for the Democratic senator because
The problem is that Harris is a woman
A Gallego win would be interesting not only from a domestic policy standpoint, but also because a major fight is expected to develop over which party will have the majority in the Senate, and even a single Senate seat might decide the issue. . Regardless of the outcome of the election, in addition to sympathizers voting for the other party, the decision of the undecided will have a significant impact on the situation.
The New York Times that day talked about nonpartisans living in battleground states He asked mewho had a rather damning opinion about the top two presidential candidates — we've now picked out the opinions of Arizona voters:
- A black woman in her fifties described Harris, who is of Indian and black parents, as a liar, and said of Trump that he had set the country back 50 years with racism.
- A white woman in her 50s told Trump he was arrogant, and Harris was upset by the fact that the woman was unsure whether a woman should run for president.
- A white woman in her 30s says Trump is too power-hungry, while a white woman over 70 wishes he would act in a more presidential way.
- A woman in her 70s thought Harris was ill-prepared, and a white man his age simply said, “He's not smart enough to be president. I think he's an idiot.”
