Among certain voters, Democrat Kamala Harris leads 52% to 47% two and a half weeks before the US presidential election, at least according to Marist research. The vice president's lead has increased since the previous poll conducted at the end of September, when the Republican led by only two points Donald Trump In front of the former president (50%-48%).
Trump leads Harris by 54% among likely independent voters. Compared to 44% of the latter. In the previous poll, only 4 points separated the candidates in this group, also in favor of the Republican standard-bearer.
There are two things to watch for in the final weeks of the presidential race. First, when looking at those most likely to vote, Harris does better. Therefore, a higher participation rate is in his favour
– Rated lee merenjoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Research. “Second, let's not ignore that the gender gap, which is expected to be higher than usual, goes both ways. Trump carries men, Harris carries women.” He added hill based on
The Marist poll had 1,401 confirmed voters, and the margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points, so the difference between the two candidates is well within that percentage.
New national Fox News poll according to However, the Republican presidential nominee leads by 50%, while Harris would receive only 48% of the vote if the election were held now.
Compared to last month, this is a turnaround,
The Democratic vice president then beat Trump by two points among confirmed voters and registered voters (50%-48%).
What could tip the scales in Harris' favor is that he leads by 6 percentage points overall in the seven key battleground states. This raises the possibility
A Democratic presidential candidate can win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote at the national level.
Nothing like this has ever happened to a Democrat beforeThe last time this happened to Republican candidates was in 2000 and 2016. George W. BushAnd Trump. According to Fox, however, in districts that promised to be close (where the difference was less than 10 points Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020) is a tie.
The Fox News poll was conducted by asking 870 likely voters, and the margin of error is +/- 3 points, so the difference between presidential aspirants falls within this.
The cover image is an illustration. Cover image source: Getty Images
