What could have caused the defeat?
In the event of an electoral defeat, the party naturally discounts the relevant consequences. However, this has not yet happened in the case of CDU/CSU, where the party coalition is still struggling to get a coalition leader in second place.
However, even before the election, these a ErrorsWhich may have led to the party’s historic defeat, and these are things worth noting.
Perhaps the problem was due, among other things, to the fact that Laschet was known to relatively few people outside North Rhine-Westphalia before his nomination for chancellor.And what they knew about him was mainly related to the minimally questionable outcome of the treatment for the coronavirus pandemic.
In the meantime, he couldn’t build on his own messages. When a reporter asked Lachet at a campaign event what he would do first if he were to win, the chancellor’s candidate identified a digital revival and called managing the climate crisis economic rationality. Then the reporter asked if there was a third thing that had crossed his mind, but Lachet could not answer.
LASCHET was really built on the popularity of its own party, which could have worked even if the dynamics of German politics continued to be determined by the great people.
Laschet surely underestimated the difficulties of the campaign after successfully winning the CDU presidency and chancellor’s candidate. This is because the position of chancellor has the greatest power and responsibility in German politics, as candidates must be prepared to watch their every move and, as a result, be attacked.
However, LAschet caused a big scan for the fact that they had just received in laughterWhen the President of the Republic, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, expressed his condolences to the victims of the German floods in the summer.
It could also be a problem that Laschet did not surround himself with the right people during the campaign, that is, people he did not know or had not known for a long time. Months ago, for example, he added Tanit Koch, the former head of Germany’s newspaper Bild, to his team, hoping he could boost his election campaign, but the opposite happened.
However, it wouldn’t be fair to thread the entire electoral failure around Laschet’s neck. Indeed, in recent years, the CDU has positioned itself as a ruling party rather than a political bloc vying for power.
And if we add that Angela Merkel did not run in the current elections with a “office bonus”, it can be assumed that the CDU / CSU simply was not able to build a politician similar to the chancellor.
What will be the fate of Armin Laschet?
In light of the results, the question also arises about Laschet’s fate in the coming weeks. There are several scenarios on the table in this regard.
- Yesterday, Laschet said he would form a government despite the election defeat, but that it would not be an easy task. To do this, you must convince both the Freedom and Development Party and the Green Party, as the latter can get into trouble. Moreover, it would not be good for the second most popular party, along with the third and fourth most popular, to overtake the winning political formation and the formation of a government. As a result of the criticism, Laschet actually tried in his statement today to silence the voices of the CDU for this purpose. He said he did not claim that they are empowered to rule in the elections, nor that the Traffic Light Coalition is not working.
- If your attempt and the SPD fail to form a coalition with the above-mentioned parties, In theory, CDU/CSU joining another major alliance could arisewhere Laschet could be a vice-chancellor. However, this is unlikely simply because neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD wants another grand coalition., which is also opposed by the Free Democratic Party and the Green Party.
- If the CDU goes into opposition, then Laschet could theoretically also be the leader of the opposition, also made it to the Bundestag from the list, but this is also unlikely because the current leader of the CDU parliamentary group, Ralph Brinkhaus, has already registered for the title and Laschet He stated that he had no such ambitions because he wanted to become a consultant.
- Laschet is still prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, so in principle he can return to this position. politician at CDU However, he had already stated during the campaign that he would prefer to remain in Berlin in case of defeat. However, he left the door open behind him. This is because the local CDU will not decide on Laschet’s successor in North Rhine-Westphalia until after the federal election, which many have criticized. However, this possibility also exists.
- Laschet currently holds the presidency of the CDU, but it is highly questionable what his chances of retaining the title will be given the defeat. CDU MP Norbert Röttgen said in a recent statement that now is not a time for personal matters. Gita Konneman, a deputy for the CDU faction, is no longer so optimistic: She said this election had the worst result in the party’s history and could not go unnoticed.
Based on the above, he declared that his only possible job fate is to ascertain how the opening coalition negotiations may flow through for weeks, until then Angela Merkel as the Leader’s CEO remains in office.
What about CDU?
The big question is also what will happen to the CDU after the elections and coalition negotiations. Although only union parties have so far focused on forming an effective coalition in some way, change is unlikely to be possible.
CDU Vice President Jens Spahn, who is currently the Minister of Health at SPIegel today in his interview He stated that there is a need for a generational change within the party to succeed in harnessing the challenges of the future.
Spahn has also appointed a number of young politicians from the CDU who could participate in the renewal of the party. These include, for example, the Prime Minister of Saarland, Tobias Hans, and the Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Gunther. Spahn also named CDU economic politician Carsten Lenemann and Sylvia Brehr. The minister also added that the CDU has the potential to be a party of more than 30 percent.
However, it would not be surprising that Spahn will also play a more serious role in the future, because he is a popular politician at the national level. However, it may also be worth mentioning Friedrich Merz, who was Merkel’s rival within the party and returned to politics after nearly ten years., when he also ran for the presidency of the CDU in January, but failed at Laschet. In recent years, Dare can be classified as a conservative wing of the party, as opposed to the centrist CDU.
Cover photo: Armin Laschet, President of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Chancellor(s) of the CDU-CSU party coalition speaking at the CDU Congress in Berlin awaiting the event on the eve of Germany’s federal parliamentary elections on September 26, 2021. Photo: MTI Pool/EPA/Clemens Bilan
